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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Liliya Shakirova vs. Lauren Murphy

Liliya Shakirova and Lauren Murphy meet in a women’s flyweight bout on the main card of UFC 254 on October 24th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

UFC Fight Night: Modafferi v Murphy Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In the only women’s bout on the main card, #5 Lauren Murply will take on Liliya Shakirova in a women’s flyweight fight that will be live this Saturday from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi and available on pay-per-view through ESPN+.

With Cynthia Calvillo originally slated to fight, Shakirova was plugged in due to Calvillo’s positive Covid-19 test. Shakirova will be making her UFC debut in this fight and has an 8-1 MMA record. With three of those fights ending in a knockout and just one via submission, the Uzbekistan native seems more capable as a striker.

As for Murphy she’ll enter with a 13-4 MMA record and a 5-4 record in the UFC. She’s on a three-match win streak with victories over #8 Roxanne Modafferi and #10 Andrea Lee.

Having won both via decision, all of Murply’s nine UFC fights have seen a third round. Averaging 3.88 significant strikes per minute and 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, “Lucky” can do a little bit of everything in the octagon. She’ll enter this bout as the favorite given her experience and win streak.

Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Liliya Shakirova vs. Lauren Murphy at UFC 254 on October 24th.

Betting splits

Liliya Shakirova: +170, (30% of action, 22% of bets)
Lauren Murphy: -215, (70% of action, 78% of bets)

Winning method splits

Here are the splits for the method of victory at DraftKings Sportsbook for Liliya Shakirova vs. Lauren Murphy at UFC 254 on October 24th:

Liliya Shakirova: $7,400
Lauren Murphy: $8,800

This is not a great DFS bout. There isn’t too much known about Shakirova’s success in the UFC as this is her debut, and Murply’s fights typically go the distance or at least close to it. Murphy’s certainly the one to bet on, and with two takedowns and over 70 significant strikes in each of her last two fights, she may even be a good DFS play. But she’s also had wins like her late 2019 victory over Mara Romero Borella which was a third-round knockout with just 24 significant strikes via Murphy. She may win, but even in her victories she may not be a point machine.

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