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It’s Joey Chestnut or bust at the DraftKings Halloween Candy Bowl

Joey Chestnut is the favorite, but the real predictions surround who will come in second and third.

DraftKings and Major League Eating have joined forces to launch a three-event holiday eating competition, and it kicks off on Saturday with the Halloween Candy Bowl in Las Vegas.

The top six competitive eaters in the world will be attempting to scarf down up to six pounds of candy in front of the Bellagio fountains at 7:30 p.m. ET. You’ll be able to watch it live on DraftKings’ YouTube page and Twitch page.

The six competitors will be eating candy corn, Kit Kats, M&Ms, Milky Ways, Snickers, and Mini Reese’s in that order. There will be one pound of each candy and they will have six minutes to consume as much as they can. Odds have been set in Colorado, Illinois, and Indiana, but there is also a free national pool for anybody to compete in.

The free pool consists of making eight predictions. Whomever is most accurate will split a $500 prize. 2nd and 3rd each get $100, 4th and 5th get $50. Here are the 8 questions:

Who will come in first place?
Who will come in second place?
Who will come in third place?
Who will finish the candy corn first?
Who will eat the least amount of candy?
Will Joey Chestnut finish all his candy?
How many contestants will finish all 6 pounds of candy?
How many total pounds of candy will be consumed across all the contestants in the contest?

Joey Chestnut seems the obvious choice for first place. He’s the GOAT of competitive eaters with a list of world records that is second to none. He’s the Wayne Gretzky or Jerry Rice of the competitive eating realm. It’s hard to find an exact comp among his records. The sugary records — twinkies and funnel cake — help in his ability to eat rich, sugary food, but they don’t have the texture of some of these candies.

Chestnut (-110 in the odds) will be the runaway favorite for first place, and while you could choose to fade him there, it’s not a great value play. You’re probably better off trying to nail second and third place. Geoffrey Esper (+160) and Darron Breeden (+600) have the second and third best odds, but Matt Stonie is the biggest value play. He’s ranked fourth in the world, but has +1400 odds, just ahead of +1500 Miki Sudo. My inclination is to go Chestnut, Stonie, Esper in that order.

The final question asks how many combined pounds of candy will be consumed by the six competitors. The best choice to me is 20-29. If each averages four pounds of candy consumed, you’re at 24 pounds. This is a tough competition to handicap, and given the nature of the candy and how hard it can be to get it down, I don’t think we’ll see many of the eaters finish all six pounds. Maybe Chestnut and second place do, but my money is on this being a little more difficult than the pros anticipate.

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