In the final bout on the preliminary card of UFC Vegas 12, Chris Gruetzemacher will take on Alexander Hernandez in a lightweight fight this Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
Hernandez will open as the heavy favorite, and let’s just say the bulk of the public is betting on him to win this bout. With only losses to top-15 opponents, Hernandez has 14 UFC bouts and an 11-3 record in the promotion. He averages 3.17 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.87. “The Great” is a grappler, averaging 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Having not fought for over two years, Gruetzemacher is 3-2 in the UFC and 14-3 at the MMA level. He averages 7.12 significant strikes per minute, and the 34-year-old is an ultra-aggressive fighter. “Gritz” has a puncher’s chance if he can stay on his feet, and has yet to complete a UFC takedown in five bouts.
Here are the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Alexander Hernandez at UFC Vegas 12 on October 31st.
Chris Gruetzemacher: +300, (6% of action, 9% of bets)
Alexander Hernandez: -400, (94% of action, 91% of bets)
Chris Gruetzemacher: $6,900
Alexander Hernandez: $9,300
Hernandez doesn’t appear to be great value. He averages just 57.3 fantasy points per fight, and even if he does win, he won’t accrue many strikes. The opposite can said of Gritz. Even in a loss, he may score, averaging 63.1 fantasy points per minute.
He’s been out of the octagon and is likely to lose the fight, but if he can go a couple rounds, he’ll get enough strikes in to make it worth the while of anyone looking for a cheap final add.
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