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Best value lineup strategy for Falcons vs. Packers MNF

The Packers host the Falcons on Monday night. Who will shine in this week’s DK Showdown?

Atlanta Falcons running back Brian Hill runs past Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Joe Giles-Harris during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers go head-to-head Monday night in Green Bay. These teams come into this game in much different positions, with the Packers putting up huge points while going 3-0 and the Falcons losing two huge leads in their last two games on their way to 0-3.

This game has a monstrous 56.5 points over/under over at Draftking’s Sportsbook and a 7-point advantage for the Packers. That should lead to a bunch of fantasy points across the board.

Hayden Hurst, TE, $5,400

The Falcons should get all their starting wide receivers back this week, but Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones aren’t exactly 100 percent. Hurst hasn’t been a huge contributor, but he does have two touchdowns in three games. He has a good chance of finding the end zone again this week in a probable shootout.

Brian Hill, RB, $2,800

Last week we saw Hill’s snap percentage rise to 34 percent and Todd Burley’s fall to 51 percent. That led to Gurley seeing 14 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown, adding one catch for two yards, while Hill had nine carries for 58 yards and a touchdown, adding one reception for 22 yards. If this keeps up, you have to call this a committee and against the packers run defense, Hill has some upside as the lesser part of the committee.

Robert Tonyan, TE, $4,600

Tonyan has topped 60 percent of the snaps each week and last week he saw five targets, catching all five for 50 yards and a touchdown. That was his second touchdown in as many games and with Lazard out, even Adams returning shouldn’t kill his usage.

Darrius Shepherd, WR, $200
Tyler Ervin, RB, $800

If Davante Adams happens to miss this game, Shepherd and Ervin make for great punt plays at their bottom of the barrel price. Shepherd had one target and Ervin had two last week, but that’s with Allen Lazard leading the team in targets. If Adams and Lazard are out, these two would see a big bump in work.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.