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Why I like the Chiefs and the points against the Patriots

The Chiefs and the Patriots will go head to head on Monday night after rescheduling their game due to Covid-19 concerns.

 Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during overtime at SoFi Stadium.  Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the New England Patriots in a Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup. The Chiefs hope to continue their win streak, as they come into the game at 3-0 while the Patriots come in at 2-1, with their only loss in Seattle against a red-hot Russell Wilson.

Getting that third win for the Patriots will be a tall order this week, as Cam Newton is out due to testing positive for Covid-19. He will be replaced by Brian Hoyer, who has lost the last 16 games he’s started.

Newton’s absence moved this line from -7 in favor of the Chiefs to -11 in their favor. That makes plenty of sense, as Newton has been a big part of their offense both through the air and on the ground. The over/under is now set at 49 points.

ATS Pick: Chiefs

This play comes down to how much you believe in Bill Belichick, and there is plenty of reason to believe. When Belichick and the Patriots have been seven-point or more underdogs, they’ve gone 8-1-1 against the spread. Those are some impressive numbers and speak volumes about Belichick’s ability as a coach. Of course, most of those games came with Tom Brady at the helm.

Belichick’s plan will likely involve plenty from his running backs on the ground and through the air, which also happens to be a weakness in the Chiefs defense. His plan, whatever it turns out to be, is likely a good one, but does he have the personnel to pull it off? Patrick Mahomes just shredded the Ravens pass defense and Russell Wilson shredded the Patriots pass defense for five touchdowns two weeks ago.

Football Outsiders has New England’s pass defense ranked 27th in DVOA and now Mahomes gets his shot at them at home in front of at least a few fans. Mahomes shouldn’t have a whole lot of trouble putting up points while the Chiefs defense, despite their weakness against the run, should be able to concentrate resources to stopping the run.

If Cam Newton were playing, I’d have likely gone with the Patriots and the 7-points, but at this point, the Patriots are outclassed and I don’t see Andy Reid and Mahomes letting off the gas with Belichick at the controls of their opponent.

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