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Breaking down betting splits ahead of NBA Finals Game 4 Lakers vs. Heat

We go over how the public is betting the spread, over/under and moneyline for Tuesday’s game, plus share which way we’d lean.

LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during Game Three of the NBA Finals on October 4, 2020 at AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida. Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat get back to it with Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. The Lakers carry a 2-1 series lead into Game 4, which will be pivotal with the Heat coming off a win on Sunday night. We’ll still need to wait on some injury news on Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo, but for now, let’s take a look at some betting splits and how the public is leaning.

Lakers vs. Heat betting splits

Spread analysis

If you were looking for a surprise in the spread after Miami’s Game 3 win, you’re going to be disappointed. The Lakers are currently 7.5 point favorites and unsurprisingly the public seems to be big fans of L.A., according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting against the Heat making it close is an interesting call after what we saw in Game 3. If you’re apart of the over 90% of people who’re betting the Lakers at 7.5 points, you’re simply relying on the “LeBron James and Anthony Davis not letting the series get evened up” narrative. Not a bad bet to take with the Heat’s injury concerns still at the forefront and the Lakers a bit embarrassed.

Over/Under analysis

In two of the three games thus far, the total points have been over 219. The Heat have become more offensively comfortable with each game and the Lakers have maintained a level of comfort. There’s good reason to the public backing the over of 219. A high-scoring Game 4 is to be expected given the importance of the series swing game.

Moneyline analysis

There’s a bit more public backing behind the Heat moneyline than the O/U or spread. With the Lakers moneyline being so high at -315, you’d expect a bit more action on the Heat. With the injury doubts and Lakers reeling after Game 3, I’d be hard-pressed to see the public shifting much further.

Lakers vs. Heat Game 4 Betting Splits

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
LA Lakers -7.5 82% 77% Over 219.0 70% 71% -335 69% 66%
MIA Heat 7.5 18% 23% Under 219.0 30% 29% 275 31% 34%

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