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NFL studs and duds against their 2020 over/unders for total wins

We discuss the how teams are progressing against their win total over/unders from the 2020 NFL offseason.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after Devin Singletary scored a two yard touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter in the game at Allegiant Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Oddsmakers projected win totals for every franchise ahead of the 2020 NFL season, and through four games, we have an idea of what teams are on pace to exceed expectations and what teams could fall short over to close out 2020. Let’s take a look at how NFL teams are stacking up against their DraftKings Sportsbook preseason win totals a quarter of the way through the regular season.

Studs

The Buffalo Bills have exceeded expectations like no other team has so far. Their preseason over/under was set at 8.5 wins, and they’re already 47 percent of the way there thanks to a 4-0 start. They have chance to take the AFC East title from the New England Patriots for the first time since 2008, and Josh Allen’s improved passing has helped Buffalo overcome its defensive struggles.

The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs had the highest preseason over/under in the NFL at 11.5 wins and are well on their way to meeting expectations. Kansas City entered the season with the 18th most-difficult schedule in the NFL and still cruised to a 4-0 record after toppling the New England Patriots. The Chiefs are 34.7 percent of the way to 11.5 wins and could very well top their 12-4 record from 2019. Kansas City’s offense is as dynamic as ever with Patrick Mahomes under center, but its defense has also shown that it can buckle down when it needs to.

The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers had their preseason over/under set at 5.5 wins. Only the Cincinnati Bengals had a lower over/under (5), but Carolina and Arizona are trending in the right direction and each sit at 2-2. Acquiring DeAndre Hopkins has worked wonders for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ offense. Their Week 1 upset against the San Francisco 49ers showed that they can put up points against the best, but their poor defense could be what slows them down. The Panthers swapped Cam Newton for Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, and the former New Orleans Saint has won two games by spreading the ball out his trio of speedy wideouts with an injured Christian McCaffrey. Six wins is within reach for both franchises.

Duds

The Houston Texans, New York Giants, and New York Jets, and Atlanta Falcons all kicked off 2020 with 0-4 records and haven’t made any progress toward their preseason over/unders. The Texans had the highest over/under in this group of underachievers at 8.5 wins, after having won the AFC South with a 10-6 record in 2019. However, trading Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals has taken a toll on Deshaun Watson.

The Giants suffered a critical blow in Week 2 when Saquon Barkley tore his ACL in Week 2 and brought his season to a premature end. This could be a long year for them without one of the most dynamic running backs in football.

The Jets may be the worst team in the NFL this season and could start from scratch after 2020 if things don’t pick up. Sam Darnold has yet to look like a franchise centerpiece, and not having RB Le’Veon Bell or WR Jamison Crowder early in the season hasn’t helped improve his outlook.

The Falcons have a star-studded receiving corps, but can’t play defense to save their lives. They’re giving up 34.5 points per game, and no amount of offense from Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage can hold off late-game comebacks from the opposition.

2020 NFL win total performance

Team Wins Losses Ties O/U (preseason) % there Max Wins
Team Wins Losses Ties O/U (preseason) % there Max Wins
Buffalo Bills 4 0 0 8.5 47% 16
Seattle Seahawks 4 0 0 9.5 42% 16
Green Bay Packers 4 0 0 9.5 42% 16
Chicago Bears 3 1 0 7.5 40% 15
Cleveland Browns 3 1 0 7.5 40% 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 1 0 7.5 40% 15
Indianapolis Colts 3 1 0 8 38% 15
Arizona Cardinals 2 2 0 5.5 36% 14
Carolina Panthers 2 2 0 5.5 36% 14
Tennessee Titans 3 0 0 8.5 35% 16
Kansas City Chiefs 4 0 0 11.5 35% 16
Los Angeles Rams 3 1 0 9 33% 15
Pittsburgh Steelers 3 0 0 9 33% 16
Las Vegas Raiders 2 2 0 7 29% 14
Baltimore Ravens 3 1 0 11 27% 15
Cincinnati Bengals 1 2 1 5 20% 13
New England Patriots 2 2 0 10.5 19% 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 1 3 0 5.5 18% 13
Miami Dolphins 1 3 0 5.5 18% 13
New Orleans Saints 2 2 0 11 18% 14
San Francisco 49ers 2 2 0 11 18% 14
Washington Football Team 1 3 0 5.5 18% 13
Detroit Lions 1 3 0 6 17% 13
Denver Broncos 1 3 0 7 14% 13
Los Angeles Chargers 1 3 0 7 14% 13
Dallas Cowboys 1 3 0 9.5 11% 13
Minnesota Vikings 1 3 0 9.5 11% 13
Philadelphia Eagles 1 2 1 9.5 11% 13
Atlanta Falcons 0 4 0 8 0% 12
Houston Texans 0 4 0 8.5 0% 12
New York Giants 0 4 0 6 0% 12
New York Jets 0 4 0 6 0% 12

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