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Early look at lines for Lakers vs. Heat NBA Finals Game 5

The Lakers are up 3-1 and will look to close out a championship on Friday night. We take a look at the spread, over/under and moneyline for Game 5.

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat defends LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers during the fourth quarter in Game Four of the 2020 NBA Finals at AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on October 6, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Los Angeles Lakers re-took control of the 2020 NBA Finals with a 102-96 win over the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Tuesday night. The Lakers are up 3-1 and will look to clinch the franchise’s 17th championship on Friday night in Game 5 at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC. The Heat had made it a series with a win in Game 3 despite missing both Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo. Miami got Adebayo back in the lineup for Game 4 on Tuesday and the team responded on defense. The Heat remained close throughout the entire game but didn’t have enough to stop LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the end.

Lakers vs. Heat Game 4 odds, lines, spreads

Spread: Lakers -7
Over/Under: 216.5
Moneyline: Lakers (-335), Heat (+260)

We saw the point total go under for the second straight game. With Adebayo back and a new game plan from the Heat, there was less offense. That could be the case again in Game 5, so getting in on this total while it’s still high makes sense. The spread has consistently been around 7-8 points throughout the series. It can’t really fluctuate too much. There’s only bee one blowout win in the entire series — Game 1 by the Lakers. The Heat backdoor covered in Game 4 and easily covered in Game 3.

My guess is if the Lakers are going to win Game 5, it will be by more than 7 points. Again, it looked that way in a close contest in Game 4 until Tyler Herro nailed a 3-pointer in the final seconds and backdoor’d the Heat into a cover. So initially, I’m leaning toward the Lakers to close things out and cover 7 points. LeBron and AD didn’t even play that well in Game 4 and the Lakers were able to make shots down the stretch. Game 4 felt like a tipping point and L.A. should close out the series on Friday.

Lakers vs. Heat Game 5 splits

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
MIA Heat 7 62% 58% Over 217.0 16% 47% 260 54% 35%
LA Lakers -7 38% 42% Under 217.0 84% 53% -335 46% 65%

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