Friday could be a sad, sad day. Not because it’s the end of the week and you wanted to keep working from home. But because it could be the final night we get to bet on basketball until January. The Los Angeles Lakers are up 3-1 on the Miami Heat in the 2020 NBA Finals and head into Game 5 of the series up 3-1, looking to clinch the championship. As for player props, we’ve done a decent job so far in the Finals, going 8-5 on player prop bets through the first four games. We we spot on with LeBron > AD in points and Anthony Davis U29.5 points in Game 4. Let’s finish (maybe the season) off strong on Friday night.
Tyler Herro over 2.5 3-pointer (+125)
This has to be the game Herro steps up or the Heat are going home. He struggled in Game 3, going 6-of-18 from the floor. He bounced back a bit in Game 4 with 21 points on 8-of-18 shooting (3-of-7 from 3). Overall, the Lakers have done a good job on Herro defensively. He hasn’t gotten much daylight, yet, is still finding his shot. In an elimination game, season on the line, the best players normally step up. We saw what Herro is capable of in the Eastern Conference Finals when he dropped 37 points. Is he going to do that? Probably not. Do we need him to go off to hit more than 2.5 treys? Nope. So getting plus-odds on Herro to drain 3 from downtown feels good.
Bam Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-110)
Adebayo missed Games 2 and 3, and most of Game 1 of this series. He returned in Game 4 and played 33 minutes. The Heat will basically get almost 3 full days off between Games 4 and 5. I anticipate Adebayo will be well-rested and ready to go 35-40 minutes in an elimination game. Unless this becomes lopsided one way or the other, Adebayo’s minutes should be safe. He didn’t pass much in his return but he was also in a bit of foul trouble and working his way back. Adebayo had over 3.5 assists in 5 of 6 games during the Eastern Conference Finals. Normally, we’d get this number at 4.5, so even odds with a lower number is favorable.
LeBron James top point scorer (+130)
In each of the past two elimination games, LeBron has led the Lakers in scoring. He had 29 points against the Houston Rockets and 38 points against the Denver Nuggets. He also had 36 points in the first round in Game 5 vs. the Trail Blazers (Anthony Davis had 43). So in 2 of 3 series, LeBron has essentially given the Lakers the win. I think the Heat will either keep this game close or get blown out. If Miami keeps it close, it will likely be by containing Davis (something the Heat have done the past two games). So LeBron should take over in Game 5 on Friday and will almost certainly get the Lakers the ship.
LeBron James to record triple-double (+230)
Looking at some of those stats from above is encouraging. Another stat for elimination games for the Lakers is LeBron has a triple-double in 2 of 3 of those games. He had a triple-double against the Blazers and Nuggets in Game 5. I’ve been chasing this elusive dragon for the past couple games now, hoping that LeBron will get the 1-2 assists he needs to get to this mark. James has been so close in Games 3 and 4, so screw it, let’s ride it again in a spot that makes more sense.
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