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Why I like the Colts ATS on TNF vs. Titans

Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry’s struggles could carry over into Week 10 and contribute the Titans being upset by the Colts on Thursday

Indianapolis Colts defensive end Justin Houston celebrates his sack for a safety with defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in the second half against the New York Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium.  Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Tennessee Titans will host the Indianapolis Colts to kick off Week 10 with a Thursday Night Football matchup. Tennessee sits atop the AFC South but only has a one-game lead over the Colts and has an opportunity to gain ground with a victory.

The Titans (-136) aren’t favored by a wide margin on DraftKings Sportsbook. They’ve looked inconsistent since losing their first game of the season to the Pittsburgh Steelers and could struggle to cover the spread against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

ATS Pick: Colts

The Titans are 1.5-point favorites and have been in a ton of close games this year. They’ve only won one game by more than a score, and that was their Week 4 blowout against the Buffalo Bills. The Titans’ offense is built around Derrick Henry’s production. He leads the NFL with 182 rushing attempts this season but the Colts allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Indianapolis also allows the third-fewest passing yards per game. Its well-rounded group of defensive personnel has the chops to take down a Tennessee team that’s been subpar lately.

Henry ranks second in rushing yards with 843 but has only scored one touchdown against top 15 run defenses while averaging just over 70 rushing yards per game. He’s been bottled up by the defensive fronts of the Bears and Steelers this year and the same could happen against Indianapolis. Studs like Justin Houston, DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard will make things tough for Henry when he runs between the tackles or tries to get around the edge.

Ryan Tannehill has been applauded for his accuracy since his efficient play helped turn the Titans around in 2019, but he hasn’t been able to move the chains with his arm consistently. He opened the year as one of the league’s most accurate passers but has now failed to complete more than 60 percent of his passes for three straight weeks. A Colts secondary led by Xavier Rhodes won’t make it easy for Tannehill to bounce back. Indianapolis is healthier than most teams in the NFL and can use its star power to overcome a suspect offense and get a win.

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