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How and what to watch for South Florida vs. Houston

The South Florida Bulls continue to look for an identity as they travel to take on the still rebooting Houston Cougars.

Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune looks to pass during the game against the Houston Cougars and the Cincinnati Bearcats on November 7, 2020, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Two AAC teams heading in opposite directions, the 1-6 South Florida Bulls and the 2-3 Houston Cougars, face off Saturday for the first time under their respective head coaches.

The first season of head coach Jeff Scott’s tenure at South Florida has not gone smoothly. Playing with a lackluster roster left over from Charlie Strong, the Bulls have started multiple quarterbacks — Jordan McCloud and Noah Johnson have fairly similar statistical outputs through seven games — and no obvious trump card elsewhere on the offense. Scott, who came over from national power Clemson, will have his work cut out for him on the recruiting trail over the next few years.

Houston finds itself in better shape overall, but head coach Dana Holgorsen still has plenty of long days ahead as he transitions the offensive roster toward his version of the Air Raid. That process already led to the transfer of quarterback D’Eriq King to Miami, but junior Clayton Tune has shown potential as a replacement. Not only will Tune set career highs in several key passing categories by the end of the season, but he will also likely do so as a runner. Holgorsen believes Tune, by the end of his senior season, will eclipse what King could do in the Cougars offense.

Game Time/TV Channel/Streaming

You can watch South Florida vs. Houston on Saturday, Nov. 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, a separate subscription service that doesn’t use a cable or streaming service login.

Point Spread, Totals, Odds, Trends

Point spread: South Florida vs. Houston (-14)
Point Total: 57.5
Money line: South Florida +400, Houston -560

  • Against the spread, South Florida has a 18-12-0 record as the road team and a 9-6-0 record as a road underdog since the start of the 2015 season.
  • Over the same period, the Bulls have hit the over 15 times in 30 opportunities with one push as a road team and done so six out of 15 times as a road underdog, again with one push.
  • Since the start of 2015, Arizona has gone 16-18-0 against the spread at home and 13-12-0 as a home favorite.
  • Also over that span, the Wildcats have hit the over 15 times in 34 opportunities at home with one push and done so nine out of 25 tries as the home favorite, again with one push.

Betting splits

South Florida +14: (27% of handle, 43% percent of bets)
Houston -14: (73% of handle, 57% percent of bets)

The Best Bet

Houston still has plenty to figure out, but Tune and the offense should “get right” against a lackluster South Florida defense. With a reasonable over/under of 57.5 for a game featuring Holgorsen’s air raid, look for points to come quickly and often.

Pick: Over 57.5

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