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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Paul Felder vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

Paul Felder and Rafael Dos Anjos meet in the main event at lightweight of UFC Vegas 14 on November 14th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Paul Felder reacts after his split-decision loss to Dan Hooker in their lightweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Spark Arena on February 23, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

In the main event bout at lightweight for UFC Vegas 14, Paul Felder will take on Rafael Dos Anjos Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 35-year-old Felder is entering the octagon as the underdog, despite this being his second fight in 2020. We’ve seen Felder over the last few months doing commentary for UFC events, which might play a role in the minds of bettors.

The Philadelphia native has a professional fighting record of 17-5, with his last fight taking place at UFC Fight Night 168. In that contest, Dan Hooker defeated “The Irish Dragon” by unanimous decision. Felder will try to win on Saturday by landing significant strikes. He averages 3.67 strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 43 percent.

As for Dos Anjos, he is walking into the UFC APEX with a professional fighting record of 29-13. The southpaw last fought in January at UFC Fight Night 166, where he lost to Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision.

The 36-year-old Dos Anjos is an aggressive fighter who will try to use grappling to his advantage. He has 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 39 percent in the octagon. Dos Anjos also does a good job landing strikes at 3.47 per minute with 45 percent accuracy.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Paul Felder vs. Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC Vegas 14 on November 14th.

Odds and Betting splits

Paul Felder: +160, (46% of action, 33% of bets)
Rafael Dos Anjos: -186, (54% of action, 67% of bets)

Winning method splits

Rafael Dos Anjos by Submission: +660, (49% of action, 16% of bets)
Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision: +145, (26% of action, 37% of bets)
Paul Felder by KO, TKO or DQ: +600, (12% of action, 19% of bets)
Paul Felder by Decision: +260, (9% of action, 24% of bets)
Tie: +6000, (3% of action, 1% of bets)
Paul Felder by Submission: +1600, (<1% of action, 2% of bets)
Rafael Dos Anjos by KO, TKO or DQ: +400, (<1% of action, 1% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Paul Felder: $7,400
Rafael Dos Anjos: $8,800

Heading into his main event bout on Saturday, Felder is averaging 62.7 fantasy points per fight. In his last three fights, “The Irish Dragon” has scored slightly under his average, posting 55, 58, and 57.5 fantasy points.

Meanwhile, Dos Anjos is averaging 71.4 fantasy points per fight. However, unlike Felder, the 36-year-old fighter has struggled in his last five fights, scoring just seven, 40.5, 107, 36, and 70.5 fantasy points.

If I had to make a choice here I would go with Felder, who is playing with house money, has been more consistent, and performed better in his last fight earlier this year.

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