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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Jose Quinonez vs. Louis Smolka

Jose Quinonez and Louis Smolka meet at bantamweight on the preliminary card of UFC Vegas 14 on November 14th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Louis Smolka prepares to fight Casey Kenney in their bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on May 30, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

In the other bantamweight bout on the preliminary card for UFC Vegas 14, Jose Quinones will take on Louis Smolka this Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 30-year-old Quinonez will be fighting in his second UFC bout this year. At UFC 248, he lost to Sean O’Malley by TKO in Round 1 using punches and incredible head kick. “El Teco” Quinonez has a professional fighting record of 8-4 and will be searching for this first win since Sept. 2019.

The southpaw is a talented fighter that depends on his striking and grappling skills. He lands 3.41 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 46 percent. However, Quinonez absorbs 2.58 strikes per minute, but does a solid job defending against them at 66 percent. When it comes to submissions, he has a 2.58 takedown average per 15 with an accuracy of 50 percent,

As for Louis Smolka, he is entering the UFC APEX with a professional record of 16-7. The 29-year-old Hawaiian will be trying to get his first win in the UFC, after losing to Casey Kenney in Round 1 by guillotine choke earlier this year.

“Da Last Samurai” is averaging 4.25 significant strikes per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 46 percent. He is also recording 1.61 takedowns per 15 with a 2.0 submission average per 15.

Note: Smolka missed the bantamweight limit by three pounds, and will be forfeiting 20% of his purse to Smolka. Alhassan will also be ineligible for any Fight Night bonuses from the UFC.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Jose Quinonez vs. Louis Smolka at UFC Vegas 14 on November 14th.

Odds and Betting splits

Jose Quinonez: +115, (42% of action, 46% of bets)
Louis Smolka: -150, (58% of action, 54% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Jose Quinonez: $8,400
Louis Smolka: $7,800

Just like the other fights on the card, we have a relatively UFC fighter going up against an established veteran. Despite the bettors viewing Quinonez as the underdog, he is averaging 65 fantasy points per fight.

Smolka is averaging 68.2 fantasy points per fight, but has been an inconsistent play in UFC DFS. In his last fight against Casey Kenney, he only registered seven fantasy points. But then he scored 129.5 fantasy points against MacDonald, which included a Round 1 KO/TKO and 58 significant strikes.