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Why you should take the Ravens against the spread on SNF

The Ravens are obviously the better team, but can they go into Foxborough and cover the seven-point spread?

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball against the Indianapolis Colts in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium.  Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Ravens take their 6-2 record into Foxborough to face the 3-5 New England Patriots Sunday night. It hasn’t been quite as smooth sailing for Baltimore as it was last season, as Lamar Jackson isn’t on pace to coast to the MVP award like last year. The Patriots pulled out a last second 30-27 win over the 0-8 Jets to get to their third win of the season last Monday night, which tells you about where they stand this season.

The Ravens are road favorites in this game, as they are favored by 7-points. The total is set at 43.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

ATS Pick: Ravens

The Patriots worst defeat came against the run heavy San Francisco 49ers in Week 7, when Jeff Wilson Jr. and Kyle Juszczyk combined for four rushing touchdowns. This game sets up similarly, as the Ravens are a run-heavy offense and the Patriots are weakest against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs. They also rank 31st in DVOA against the run (and 30th against the pass).

With Jackson not performing as well as a passer this season, the Ravens will likely look to run with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Jackson, which should be a strong game plan. Baltimore’s defense should also be up to the task, as they rank seventh against the pass and first against the run in DVOA.

The ascendence of Jakobi Meyers is probably the biggest plus we’ve seen for the Patriots offense this season, but his big game did just come against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Ravens should be able to keep him under wraps.

Seven points is a bunch against Bill Belichick, so this isn’t a slam dunk, but the Ravens are the better team on multiple fronts and shouldn’t have much trouble putting up points while slowing down the Patriots offense.

One caveat is that we could see a lot of rain in this game. If that’s true, I’d still be on the Ravens, but turnovers could be more of a factor if it turns into a true deluge.

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