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Fantasy football, DFS, and betting primer for Week 10

Your one-stop shop for NFL fantasy football, DFS and betting advice for Week 9.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Robert Woods (17) reacts to his catch and run for a first down against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Bills Stadium.  Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Week 10 of the fantasy football season. First, I’ll give you my favorite DK individual plays at each position. Then I’ll go through the relevant injuries for this week. And I’ll wrap it all up with my favorite wagers for this Sunday.

I’ll also be answering start/sit questions in our War Room starting two hours before early game kickoffs. Do give a click if you’re reading this between 11 am - 1pm EST Sunday morningish.

Weather

The weather looks like it could be another problem this Sunday, with multiple games looking like they’ll have trouble with wind. You can check out our look at the forecasts here, but we probably should be a little weary of passing and kicking plays in Packers vs. Jaguars, Browns vs. Texans, Steelers vs. Bengals and Patriots vs. Ravens.

Favorite DK plays

QBs:

Josh Allen, Bills, $7,500

This game between the Cardinals and Bills has the highest over-under of the weekend and the highest pace, as both teams don’t dilly-dally on offense. Allen went into a mini-slump after his hot start, but he turned things around last week against the Seahawks, which also was the first game John Brown looked like he was healthy in a long while. The Cardinals rank 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and we know Allen can rack up points with his legs.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals, $8,000

At this point, Murray is a cheat code in cash games. He’s topped 40 DK points in his last two, showing that he can throw the ball with the best in the league, but it’s still his rushing stats that keep him with such consistent fantasy days. He’s averaging 67.9 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game! He also hasn’t dipped below 24 DK points in any game this season. The Bills are

Other QBs I like: Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff

RBs:

Mike Davis, Panthers, $4,000

This is an awful matchup for Davis on the ground, as the Buccaneers have stuffed multiple backs this season. The good news is that Davis had eight receptions for 74 yards the last time he played the Buccaneers in Week 2, the same game Christian McCaffrey was hurt. And, his price is down significantly, as he was priced as the backup for this game instead of the starter. The Bucs have allowed the second-most receptions to running backs this season and Davis should again have a decent game through the air.

J.D. McKissic, Washington, $4,900

McKissic isn’t a high upside play, as he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season, but his receptions numbers, especially with Alex Smith at the helm, should continue to give him a good floor. The Lions have allowed five receiving touchdowns to running backs to lead the league, so there is some upside as well as a good shot at 5+ receptions.

James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,600

Robinson’s big usage continues to keep him as an every week possibility in cash games and this week he’ll face a weak Packers run defense. The Packers rank 30th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position and with some strong winds in play for this game, I think Robinson will go over his average touches this week.

Other RBs I like: Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Chase Edmonds (if K. Drake is out), De’Andre Swift, Duke Johnson

WRs:

Christian Kirk, Cardinals $5,700

This game should be a shootout and Kirk gets the best matchup of the Cardinals receivers. His five touchdowns in the last three games is great, but we can’t rely on those. But with the Bills likely putting up numbers, I expect Kirk gets another eight target game like his last two.

Robert Woods, Rams, $6,600

Seattle’s pass defense is unbelievable bad and they’re also hurting. Sean McVay got an extra week to game plan for them and we know that Russell Wilson and company are going to put up points and force the Rams to do the same. Woods probably gets the best matchup of the group as well, but they’re all pretty good at this point, so I also like Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds this week.

K.J. Hamler, Broncos $3,800

Hamler caught 6-of-10 targets for 75 yards last week and he caught a touchdown the previous week. Drew Lock has talked up his connection with Hamler and this week he gets a great matchup with Lamarcus Joyner out of the slot. We can’t bank on 10 targets again, but I like his chances to start a consistent run now that he’s healthy and has the playbook down.

Other WRs I like: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Josh Reynolds, Tyler Lockett, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Devante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Brandon Aiyuk

TEs:

Evan Engram, Giants, $4,500

Engram has been pretty bad this season for fantasy, but has turned things around a bit the last three weeks. Last week was his best game, as he finally found the end zone. With 10, 10, and nine targets in his last three, it’s hard not to like his usage and this week he’ll face a bad Eagles pass defense. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 46 yards against them three weeks ago, which isn’t winning you a GPP, but it’s not horrible at a weak position. I like him to have a solid floor for cash games this week.

Jacob Hollister, Seahawks, $2,600

Hollister led the Seattle tight ends in snaps and targets last week, as he caught 5-of-7 targets for 60 yards. The Rams rank 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so it’s not a bad matchup while also being an extremely cheap punt play on DraftKings.

Other TEs I like: Jordan Reed, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson (questionable), Noah Fant

D/ST:

Philadelphia Eagles, $3,600

The Eagles defensive front against the Giants offensive line is a big mismatch and I expect them to again be able to push Daniel Jones into mistakes.

New Orleans Saints, $3,000

We saw the Saints shut the Buccaneers out last week and this week they get to face Nick Mullens and a depleted 49ers offense.

Other D/STs I like: Steelers, Dolphins

Fantasy Relevant Injuries/Moves

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger didn’t get his usual practices in due to Covid-19 protocol, but has been activated and will play.

Running Back

Joe Mixon is out against the Steelers. Gio Bernard will get the start again, but in a tough matchup.

Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are out against the Rams. DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer should see the bulk of the work.

Justin Jackson was put on I.R. and is out against the Dolphins. Kalen Ballage, Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope will split work.

David Johnson is on I.R. and Duke Johnson will get to face his old team as the starter this week in an extremely windy matchup.

Nick Chubb will play against the Texans. Start him as you usually would.

Christian McCaffrey is out and Mike Davis will get another start.

Devonta Freeman is on I.R., which will give Wayne Gallman the start against the Eagles.

David Montgomery is out with a concussion. Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall should see the bulk of the work in his place.

Kenyan Drake remains a game-time call. If he can’t go, Chase Edmonds is a good start against the Bills.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson is questionable for Monday night. If he can’t go, Darnell Mooney gets a nice boost.

Deebo Samuel remains out but Brandon Aiyuk will return from the Covid-19 list.

Jerry Jeudy should play, but is listed as questionable against the Raiders.

Kenny Golladay is out again.

Alshon Jeffery should return this week, but could be eased back.

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr. is out. Kyle Rudolph should get a boost.

Tyler Kroft is on the Covid-19 list and won’t play. Dawson Knox could see an uptick.

Robert Tonyan is questionable and appears to be a true game-time decision.

Favorite wagers

Last week I went 3-1, putting me at 21-12 on the season. My loss came on a Tyler Lockett over prop. It’s safe to say that D.K. Metcalf is the every week No. 1 from now on and I can’t bank on Lockett getting his even if the matchups look more favorable for his usual slot role, but maybe this week?

Washington Football Team +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson isn’t 100 percent. Alex Smith will be at quarterback for Washington and he’ll be a checkdown king, as Washington will likely try to win this one with their defense. But, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Terry McLaurin are a group that should be able to do enough in this game to keep it close while the Lions’ offense is short-handed.

Player Props

Mike Davis UNDER 51.5 rushing yards
Mike Davis OVER 35.5 receiving yards

I like Davis to be useful in the receiving game and his 35.5 yards seems low in a game where he will likely be forced to get his yardage through the air rather than the ground. The Buccaneers have allowed just one running back to gain over 47 yards this season and it was Christian McCaffrey with 18 rushes for 59 yards before he left with an injury in Week 2.

Christian Kirk OVER 50.5 receiving yard

Kirk has topped 50 receiving yards in four of his last six games and this matchup looks superb. The Bills have Tre’Davious White, who will likely see a lot of DeAndre Hopkins, but Kirk will face Dane Jackson more often than not and Jackson isn’t good.

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