College football fans have the opportunity to watch what might be the sport’s mismatch of the week when the Buffalo Bulls offense attacks the Bowling Green Falcons defense on Tuesday night. Here’s the thing about Buffalo’s offense: it’s good. Here’s the thing about Bowling Green’s defense: it’s bad. Very bad.
I’m not exactly sure what Brian VanGorder has done to continue to get defensive coordinator jobs at this point of his career, but it’s admirable he’s been able to hang on for this long. VanGorder was fired midseason at that position with Notre Dame and with him in charge of the Louisville defense in 2018, the Cardinals ranked No. 128 out of 130 FBS teams, allowing 47.5 points per game. Hired to run the Bowling Green defense in 2019, the Eagles ranked 129th, allowing 7.1 yards per play and they are coming off a game in which they allowed 62 points to Kent State at home.
These statistics do not bode well for VanGorder and the Bowling Green defense as Buffalo’s 11.8 yards per pass attempt ranks second only to Alabama through two games. The Bulls put up 49 against Northern Illinois in the season opener, which included Buffalo turning the ball over five times. Nearly hitting 50 with five turnovers is pretty shocking, and Buffalo had 556 yards of offense against Miami (OH) last week.
Buffalo won the last three games of this series including a 49-7 victory in 2019.
Game Time/TV Channel/Streaming
You can watch Buffalo vs. Bowling Green on Tuesday, November 17th at 7:00 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, or you can stream it via the CBS Sports app with a cable or streaming service login.
Point Spread, Totals, Odds, Trends
Point spread: Buffalo (30.5) at Bowling Green
Point Total: 58
Money line: N/A
- Buffalo won and covered in each of its last five games, and the Bulls were favored in all five.
- Bowling Green failed to cover in its last five games and covered once in its last 14 games coming in as double-digit underdogs.
- Buffalo hit the over in six of its last eight games, while Bowling Green unders cashed in 14 of its 19 matchups.
Buffalo: (90% of handle, 76% of bets)
Bowling Green: (10% of handle, 24% of bets)
The Best Bet
We’re doing this. No spread is too high when there is this large of a mismatch between offense and defense. It’s possible Bowling Green doesn’t stop Buffalo all night, and its offense isn’t good enough to come close to keeping up to what the Bulls are about to do. Don’t let the kids watch this one because it’s about to get ugly early for a helpless Bowling Green squad.
Pick: Buffalo -30.5
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