How and what to watch for Middle Tennessee vs. Troy

On Saturday afternoon the 2-6 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders travel to Alabama to take on the 4-3 Troy Trojans in this non-conference matchup.

Neither of these teams are going to win its respective conference but they still have a lot to play for, like to win you money. The two offenses are relatively even in every metric, the Blue Raiders are a bit below the Trojans in SP+, but it’s not a massive gap. The thing that makes these two teams so different is the defense.

The Troy defense has held its own this year, its the 52nd best in the nation by SP+ and is ranked in the top 50 in every major statistical category and it allows very few explosive plays, coming in as the 16th best defense in the nation in limiting chunk plays. The Blue Raiders on the other hand come in way down on the list in those categories. MT’s only category where it’s middle-of-the-road is passing success.

The defense allows a ton of big plays, and lets teams get ahead of the sticks on a regular basis. It gives up close to 40 points per game too, mainly on the ground. Troy running back Kimani Vidal will probably have a big day against this defense, which is nice as QB Gunnar Watson is expected to return from injury this week.

Game Time/TV Channel/Streaming

You can watch Middle Tennessee vs. Troy on Saturday, November 21st at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN3, or you can stream it via the ESPN app with a cable or streaming service login.

Point Spread, Totals, Odds, Trends

Point spread: Middle Tennessee vs. Troy (-12.5)
Point Total: 59
Money line: Middle Tennessee (+325) vs. Troy (-435)

• The Blue Raiders have been good to bettors recently, going 4-2 ATS in its last six and hitting the over in all but one of its games in the same span
• Troy on the other hand has hit the under in seven of its last nine, mainly because its defense is significantly better than Middle Tennessee’s.
• Troy hasn’t been great at home recently, going 2-7 in the last nine on their own campus.

Betting splits

Middle Tennessee: (7% of handle, 35% percent of bets)
Troy: (93% of handle, 65% percent of bets)

The Best Bet

The offenses here are pretty evenly matched, but the defenses will be the determining factor. The Blue Raiders can’t stop anybody and that should allow Troy to be able to get a good amount of points. Still, Troy’s strength is the pass and the Blue Raiders are weakest against the run. Troy will win, but it won’t be by a crazy amount as its weakness on weakness.

Pick: MT +12.5

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