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In a light heavyweight rematch for UFC 255, Mauricio Rua will fight Paul Craig on the main card Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
The 38-year-old Rua enters this bout as the slight underdog, with a professional fighting record of 27-11-1. “Shogun” last fought at UFC on ESPN 14 in July, where he defeated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by split decision. Rua fought Craig in November of 2019 at UFC Fight Night 164, which was ultimately scored a draw.
The Brazilian fighter lands 3.63 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50 percent. He also absorbs 2.7 strikes per minute, while his defense is at 54 percent. Rua can wrestle too as he has a 2.17 takedown average per 15 minutes.
As for Craig, he walks into the UFC APEX as the favorite. The 32-year-old Scottish fighter has a professional fighting record of 13-4-1. “Bearjew” fought earlier this summer at UFC on ESPN 14 and defeated Gadzhimurad Antigulov in Round 1 by submission via triangle choke.
That being said, the 6-foot-4 Craig will try to get the 38-year-old Rua on the mat as he has 12 wins via submission. Craig has a 1.61 takedown average per 15 and submission average of 1.6.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig at UFC 255 on November 21st.
Odds and Betting splits
Mauricio Rua: +150, (41% of action, 32% of bets)
Paul Craig: -190, (59% of action, 67% of bets)
Winning Method Splits
Mauricio Rua By TKO, KO or DQ: +500, (2% of action, 6% of bets)
Paul Craig By Submission: +260, (25% of action, 20% of bets)
Tie: +5000, (1% of action, 3% of bets)
Paul Craig By Decision: +225, (1% of action, 21% of bets)
Paul Craig By KO, TKO or DQ: +550, (22% of action, 19% of bets)
Mauricio Rua By Decision: +325, (0% of action, 3% of bets)
DraftKings DFS Values
Mauricio Rua: $7,700
Paul Craig: $8,500
Despite being the underdog according to Vegas, Rua has been the better fantasy play in DFS. He’s averaging 65.8 fantasy points per fight, while Craig is only averaging 52.9 fantasy points. But looking at their recent bouts, neither fighter has been consistent in the scoring department. It would be best to fade these two fighters and find value elsewhere on the card.
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