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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Paul Craig meet at light heavyweight during UFC 255 on November 21st. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua of Brazil kicks Antonio Rogerio Nogueira of Brazil in their light heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 26, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In a light heavyweight rematch for UFC 255, Mauricio Rua will fight Paul Craig on the main card Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 38-year-old Rua enters this bout as the slight underdog, with a professional fighting record of 27-11-1. “Shogun” last fought at UFC on ESPN 14 in July, where he defeated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira by split decision. Rua fought Craig in November of 2019 at UFC Fight Night 164, which was ultimately scored a draw.

The Brazilian fighter lands 3.63 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 50 percent. He also absorbs 2.7 strikes per minute, while his defense is at 54 percent. Rua can wrestle too as he has a 2.17 takedown average per 15 minutes.

As for Craig, he walks into the UFC APEX as the favorite. The 32-year-old Scottish fighter has a professional fighting record of 13-4-1. “Bearjew” fought earlier this summer at UFC on ESPN 14 and defeated Gadzhimurad Antigulov in Round 1 by submission via triangle choke.

That being said, the 6-foot-4 Craig will try to get the 38-year-old Rua on the mat as he has 12 wins via submission. Craig has a 1.61 takedown average per 15 and submission average of 1.6.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig at UFC 255 on November 21st.

Odds and Betting splits

Mauricio Rua: +150, (41% of action, 32% of bets)
Paul Craig: -190, (59% of action, 67% of bets)

Winning Method Splits

Mauricio Rua By TKO, KO or DQ: +500, (2% of action, 6% of bets)
Paul Craig By Submission: +260, (25% of action, 20% of bets)
Tie: +5000, (1% of action, 3% of bets)
Paul Craig By Decision: +225, (1% of action, 21% of bets)
Paul Craig By KO, TKO or DQ: +550, (22% of action, 19% of bets)
Mauricio Rua By Decision: +325, (0% of action, 3% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Mauricio Rua: $7,700
Paul Craig: $8,500

Despite being the underdog according to Vegas, Rua has been the better fantasy play in DFS. He’s averaging 65.8 fantasy points per fight, while Craig is only averaging 52.9 fantasy points. But looking at their recent bouts, neither fighter has been consistent in the scoring department. It would be best to fade these two fighters and find value elsewhere on the card.

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