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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato meet at welterweight during UFC Fight Night on November 28th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Matt Brown of the United States fights Miguel Baeza of the United States in their Welterweight bout during UFC Fight Night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on May 16, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

In a welterweight match for UFC Fight Night, Miguel Baeza will take on Takashi Sato Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

The 28-year-old Baeza enters the octagon as the favorite and with a professional record of 9-0. He’s also won two consecutive bouts, with the last one happening at UFC on ESPN 8 in May. In that contest, “Caramel Thunder” defeated Matt Brown in Round 2 by TKO.

Before he joining the UFC, Baeza competed at Dana White’s Contender Series, Xtreme Fighting Nation, Fight Time, Titan FC, and Rings of Dreams 17. The Florida native will try to win on Saturday by landing blows. He averages 4.78 strikes per 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 56 percent. But Baeza absorbs a ton as well, accumulating 4.76 per minute and only defending against them at 44 percent.

And the 28-year-old might not want to get into a blow-for-blow boxing match with Takashi Sato. Instead, he might able to get a win on the mat with a 1.1 submission average per 15 minutes.

Sato enters the UFC APEX with a professional fighting record of 16-3. The 30-year-old Japanese is the underdog, and is competing in his fourth UFC bout. In his first match of 2020 at UFC on ESPN 12, “Ten” Sato defeated Jason Witt 48 seconds in Round 1 by TKO using punches.

Sato does a good job landing 3.94 significant strikes per 15 minutes, with 41 percent accuracy. But he takes a lot of strikes in return at 5.10 per minute but defends against them at 51 percent.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato at UFC Fight Night on November 28th.

Odds and Betting splits

Miguel Baeza: -167, (43% of action, 71% of bets)
Takashi Sato: +135, (57% of action, 29% of bets)

Winning method splits

DraftKings DFS Values

Miguel Baeza: $8,700
Takashi Sato: $7,500

Even though “Caramel Thunder” is the favorite in this match, there’s a part of the public that is feeling Sato could pull off the upset. Ten is coming into the bout averaging 75.2 fantasy points per fight. In the two of three UFC fights he competed in, Sato scored 109 and 94 fantasy points thanks to getting KO/TKOs.

Meanwhile Baeza is averaging 107 fantasy points through two fights, which is well above par. In both bouts, he scored TKO’s, so if he can keep that going against a higher-quality opponent you’ll find some value.

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