The PAC-12 is getting a bit easier to understand as each week passes and we get a bigger sample size of what these teams actually look like. Unfortunately, that still doesn’t mean anything is a surefire bet. The Bruins seem to always play close games, with two losses coming by a combined nine points. The loss to Oregon last weekend is even more impressive considering UCLA was down its top QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Chip Kelly’s offense has been solid, particularly rushing the ball. The Bruins are averaging 228 yards on the ground each game and will be going up against an Arizona defense that struggles to stop the run and ranks 101st in the country in runs of 12 or more yards allowed. So there should be a bunch of big plays on the ground this week when the Wildcats are on defense. They’ve had a bunch of turnover issues though, nine in just three games, including five fumbles.
Kevin Sumlin’s offense ranks toward the middle of the pack in just about everything, and doesn’t do anything especially well. It’ll be particularly tough this week too, as the few things UA does strongly on offense UCLA is very good at stopping. The Wildcats offense is not a very explosive unit either, resulting in methodical drives that usually end in some points. But it’s tough to sustain success on time-consuming drives when the defense gives up explosive play after explosive play on the other end.
Game Time/TV Channel/Streaming
You can watch Arizona vs. UCLA on Saturday, November 28th at 8 p.m. ET on FOX, or you can stream it via FOX Sports Live with a cable or streaming service login.
Point Spread, Totals, Odds, Trends
Point spread: UCLA -10.5
Point Total: 68.5
Money line: Arizona +255, UCLA -335
- The Wildcats aren’t super good to people betting on the spread, going 2-7 ATS in its last nine games
- The UA offense is a ball-control type offense, so its point totals tend to go under. It’s hit in four of the team’s last five
- UCLA is equally unkind to people putting faith in them to cover, going 2-4 ATS in its last six
- The total has gone over four of the last five times these teams have met in LA.
Arizona: (30% of handle, 46% percent of bets)
UCLA: (70% of handle, 54% percent of bets)
The Best Bet
Arizona’s defense here is going to be its undoing. The explosive ground attack of the Bruins is going to be too much for them to handle. UCLA should cruise to a win as long as it doesn’t turn the ball over a ton.
Pick: UCLA -10.5
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