In the only light heavyweight bout for UFC Vegas 13, Thiago Santos will take on Glover Teixeira in the main event this Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
The 36-year-old Santos is entering the octagon as the favorite, despite this being his first fight this year. Santos has a professional record of 21-7. The Brazilian mixed martial artist was scheduled to fight Teixeira a couple of months ago, but couldn’t as the bout was postponed due to COVID-19.
Therefore, the last time we saw Santos in the octagon, he lost to Jon “Bones” Jones by a split decision in July of 2019. “Marretta” Santos can defeat his opponent either with his punches or takedowns. He averages 4.40 strikes per minute and 0.83 takedowns per 15.
As for Teixeira, he’ll try to use grappling to his advantage on Saturday night. The 41-year-old fighter averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes with 38 percent takedown accuracy and takedown accuracy of 60 percent. The veteran Brazilian fighter is entering the UFC APEX with a professional record of 31-7. His latest win was at UFC Fight Night 171 in May, where he defeated Anthony Smith by TKO.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira at UFC Vegas 13 on November 7th.
Odds and Betting splits
Thiago Santos: -240, (84% of action, 84% of bets)
Glover Teixeira: +190, (16% of action, 16% of bets)
Winning method splits
Thiago Santos By KO, TKO or DQ: -150, 65% of action 93% of bets
Glover Teixeira By Submission: +550, 21% of action, 4% of bets
Thiago Santos By Decision: +550, 12% of action, 1% of bets
Glover Teixeira By Decision: +600, 1% of action, 1% of bets
Glover Teixeira By KO, TKO or DQ: +650, 1% of action, 1% of bets
DraftKings DFS Values
Thiago Santos: $8,800
Glover Teixeira: $7,400
As expected, Santos is the higher priced fighter coming into this main card event. He is averaging 74.4 fantasy points per fight, which more than his last fight against Jon “Bones” Jones in 2019.
However, in his three previous fights, Santos scored 89, 119, and 108 fantasy points. In all of those bouts, he either received a KO or TKO along with multiple points for significant strikes and knockdowns.
But Teixeira could provide better value as he’s averaging 84.7 fantasy points per fight. In his only fight this year, the 41-year-old scored an insane 139 fantasy points — mostly of significant strikes. If you are confident in Santos winning decisively and carrying your lineup, then roll with him.