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How and what to watch for Fresno State vs. New Mexico

New Mexico finally got its first win of the year last week, but the end of the season can’t come soon enough for the Lobos.

Kurtis Brown of the Fresno State Bulldogs reacts after tackling Utah State Aggies quarterback Jason Shelley during their game November 14, 2020 at Maverick Stadium in Logan, Utah. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images

On Saturday night two Mountian West squads will wrap up their seasons when the 3-2 Fresno State Bulldogs take on the 1-5 New Mexico Lobos.

This game has been moved to Sin City, which is where New Mexico has spent the entire season to work around state guidelines that barred gatherings of five or more people. Still even while quarantining with the entire roster with nothing but football to talk about for a couple of months, 2020 hasn’t been kind to the Lobos. They have just one win on the season, coming last week against the Wyoming Cowboys. UNM doesn’t score a ton, averaging less than 20 points per game. It’ll be tough for them to keep pace with a Fresno State team that has scored 30+ points in every game but one this season.

The Fresno State defense hasn’t been fantastic, but its been good enough thanks to their high-scoring offense. The New Mexico defense gives up about 31 points per game, so it could get ugly fast for the Lobos. Bulldogs QB Jake Haener is lighting the MW up this season, throwing for an average of 357 yards per game and has 11 scores on top of that. But don’t expect that this week as the team living in Vegas has been stingy against the pass, but have had a horrible time stopping the run, giving up nearly 200 yards each week.

Game Time/TV Channel/Streaming

You can watch Fresno State vs. New Mexico on Saturday, Dec. 12 at 10:30 p.m. ET on FS2, or you can stream it via the Fox Sports Go app with a cable or streaming login.

Point Spread, Totals, Odds, Trends

Point spread: Fresno State (-12) vs. New Mexico
Point Total: 58.5
Money line: Fresno State (-435) vs. New Mexico (+310)

Betting splits against the spread

Fresno State: (67% of action, 87% of bets)
New Mexico: (33% of action, 13% of bets)

  • Fresno State has been a good play against the spread this season, going 4-2 ATS in their last six, dating back to 2019.
  • Even with a high-scoring offense, the total has gone under in four of the Bulldogs’ last six.
  • Points are really hard to come by for the Lobos, hitting the under in 10 of their last 15 games.

The Best Bet

The best bet here is the points total again. I don’t trust UNM to get anything near the points they’ll need to get in order to come close to 60 total. Fresno will win, but they won’t run it up on the Lobos either.

Pick: Under 58.5

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