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In a flyweight bout for UFC 256, Brandon Moreno will challenge Deiveson Figueiredo for the UFC Championship in the main event Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
The 32-year-old Figueiredo enters this contest as the favorite, with a professional fighting record of 20-1. The reigning flyweight champion last fought at UFC 255 in November, where he defeated Alex Perez in Round 1 via guillotine choke.
Figueiredo will be looking to win this match using his striking and overwhelming grappling abilities. Out of his 20 career wins, nine have come via submisison. He averages 2.79 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 55 percent. “Deus da Guerra” takes a similar amount of strikes in return, absorbing 2.82 per minute with his defense at 57 percent. In regards to grappling, Figueiredo has a 1.68 takedown average and submission average of 3.0 per 15 minutes.
As for Moreno, he comes into the UFC Apex as the slight underdog. The 27-year-old has a professional fighting record of 18-5-1, and is ranked No. 1 at flyweight. Last month at UFC 255, “The Assassin Baby” received a technical knockout win over Brandon Royval.
Unlike his opponent, Moreno will look to win this fight solely off the strength of his striking skills. He averages 3.01 significant strikes per 15 minutes, with 35 percent accuracy. But he takes a significant amount of strikes in return at 2.96 and defends them at 63 percent.
Surprisingly, the Mexican mixed martial artist has a better takedown average than Figueiredo at 1.93 per 15 minutes, with 44 percent accuracy. But Moreno’s submission average per 15 minutes is only 0.8, which is average.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno at UFC 256 on December 12th.
Odds and Betting splits
Deiveson Figueiredo: -335 (91% of action, 90% of bets)
Brandon Moreno: +250 (9% of action, 10% of bets)
Winning method splits
Brandon Moreno By Submission: +800 (3% of action, 1% of bets)
Deiveson Figueiredo By Submission: +275 (35% of action, 44% of bets)
Deiveson Figueiredo By Decision: +350 (2% of action, 5% of bets)
Tie: +6600 (2% of action, 1% of bets)
Brandon Moreno By Decision: +650 (3% of action, 3% of bets)
Brandon Moreno By KO, TKO or DQ: +1000 (2% of action, 3% of bets)
Deiveson Figueiredo By KO, TKO or DQ: +150 (54% of action, 42% bets)
DraftKings DFS Values
Deiveson Figueiredo: $9,000
Brandon Moreno: $7,200
Figueiredo comes in as one of the highest priced fighters on Saturday’s card. “Deus da Guerra” is averaging 90.4 fantasy points per fight. He scored 92.5 and 133.5 fantasy points at $9000 salary in his last two fights, where he landed Round 1 victories. Meanwhile Moreno is averaging 72.1 fantasy points per fight and had his best fantasy performance at UFC 255, scoring 114 fantasy points.
With all that being said, I would side with Figueiredo who is the huge favorite to win this fight by KO, TKO or DQ. “The Assassin Baby” is good, but Figueiredo is different.
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