In a co-main event match at lightweight for UFC 256, Tony Ferguson will take on Charles Oliveira on Saturday, live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
Ferguson heads into the octagon as the favorite despite coming off a Round 5 loss by TKO to top-ranked Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship at UFC 249. The loss broke a 12-fight winning streak, and Ferguson has a UFC record of 26-4, but this will be the first time since 2016 that Ferguson has had more than one fight in the same year.
The 36-year-old “El Cucuy” lands a highly-efficient 5.51 significant strikes per-minute with an accuracy of 44 percent. He also defends 64 percent of such strikes while absorbing 3.55 per-minute. Five of his last nine wins have come by submission, where he averages 1.49 submissions per 15 minutes and defends 77 percent of takedown attempts.
As for Oliveira, he takes his seven-fight winning streak into the Apex as the underdog. With a professional record of 29-8, “Do Bronx” will be without his coach, Diego Lima, after it was reported he had tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday. Oliveira has won five times via submission during his streak and twice by KO/TKO, with his last being a guillotine choke submission of Kevin Lee at UFC Brasilia in March.
Oliveira does most of his work on the ground, where he averages 2.80 takedowns and submissions per 15 minutes. Only two of his last 11 fights have gone past the second round as Oliveira’s average fight lasts 6 minutes, 42 seconds. On the flip side, Ferguson’s fights have an average span of over 10 minutes.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira at UFC 256 on December 12th.
Odds and Betting splits
Tony Ferguson: -175 (83% of action, 76% of bets)
Charles Oliveira: +140 (17% of action, 24% of bets)
Winning method splits
Tony Ferguson By Decision +275, 5% of action, 16% of bets
Tony Ferguson By KO, TKO or DQ +260, 59% of action, 38% of bets
Tony Ferguson By Submission +400, 4% of action, 10% of bets
Tie +6600, 1% of action, 3% of bets
Charles Oliveira By Decision +500, 1% of action, 9% of bets
Charles Oliveira By KO, TKO or DQ +900, 2% of action, 6% of bets
Charles Oliveira By Submission +333, 27% of action, 19% of bets
Tony Ferguson: $8,600
Charles Oliveira: $7,600
Ferguson’s DFS value is solid, as he’s the sixth-highest option of the night. He averages 93.3 points per-contest and has broken 100 points in five of his last seven fights. The public is betting him heavily on the moneyline and to win by KO, TKO or DQ., as 13 of his 26 UFC wins are by KO/TKO.
Betters are fading Oliveira, but his DFS value isn’t bad at all. He’s averaged 97.14 fantasy points during his winning streak and is priced below $7,900 for the first time in the stretch.
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