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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev

Renato Moicano and Rafael Fiziev meet on the main card at lightweight during UFC 256 on December 12th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Renato Moicano of Brazil poses on the scale during the UFC 256 weigh-in at UFC APEX on December 11, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

In a main card lightweight match for UFC 256, Renato Moicano will take on Rafael Fiziev on Saturday live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

Fiziev enters the octagon as the favorite with a professional record of 8-1. He’s won two fights in a row, both by unanimous decision, with the last being against Marc Diakiese at UFC Fight Night in July.

In that fight, “Ataman” connected on 64% of his total strikes and 63% of significant strikes. Fiziev worked on targeting the body with leg kicks, as 42 percent of his significant strikes were to the body and just 36 percent were to the head. He has five wins in Round 1.

Moicano enters the APEX with a professional record of 14-3, winning his last fight by submission in just 46 seconds of Round 1 against Damir Hadzovic at UFC Fight Night in March. He lands 47 percent of his strikes, including 5.53 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Moicano does absorb 3.69 significant strikes per 15 minutes though, defending 67 percent of them. He has yet to win a fight in any way other than submission or decision, winning an even 50 percent of his bouts in such ways.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev at UFC 256 on December 12th.

Odds and Betting splits

Renato Moicano: +130 (63% of action, 43% of bets)
Rafael Fiziev: -159 (37% of action, 57% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Renato Moicano: $7,800
Rafael Fiziev: $8,400

It makes sense that Fiziev is as expensive of a DFS play as he is. Though he hasn’t surpassed more than 83 fantasy points, his fights go the distance and his significant strike total has increased in the last three bouts. Of his eight wins, five have come by KO/TKO. Fiziev offers a solid floor.

Moicano had lost two consecutive fights by KO/TKO less than a minute into Round 1 prior to his win against Hadzovic. He averages 69.9 fantasy points a contest, but has only provided solid value in fights that he wins via submission in the first round. I’d fade this play.

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