Fantasy football, DFS, and betting primer for Week 14

Welcome to Week 14 of the fantasy football season. I hope y’all made your fantasy playoffs, but if not, we’ve got plenty of information below to help you in DFS and wagering this week. First, I’ll give you my favorite DK individual plays at each position. Then I’ll go through the relevant injuries for this week. And I’ll wrap it all up with my favorite wagers for this Sunday.

I’ll also be answering start/sit questions in our War Room starting two hours before early game kickoffs. Do give a click if you’re reading this between 11 am - 1pm EST Sunday morningish.

Weather

The weather looks mostly good for this weekend.

Favorite DK plays

I’m a cash game player for the most part. Unless otherwise stated, my picks below are who I am looking to play in head-to-heads and double ups. .

QBs:

Aaron Rodgers, $7,500

Rodgers is throwing enough around the goal-line to give him good upside, while his consistency has been great for cash games. Add to that a moderate price and a matchup with the Lions poor defense and you have a perfect cash game quarterback. It would be nice to add Davante Adams to any Rodgers lineup, but his price could be tough to get around.

Justin Herbert $6,800

Herbert is coming off an awful game against the Patriots, but his matchup this week makes for a perfect opportunity to turn things around. Atlanta ranks last in DK points allowed to quarterbacks. Herbert has only dropped below 19.7 DK points once this season, last week, and he has Austin Ekeler back and a fully healthy receiving group. Pairing him with Keenan Allen makes sense in cash and is cheaper than the Rodgers/Adams combo.

Other QBs I like: Ryan Tannehill, $6,700, Patrick Mahomes, $8,100, Russell Wilson, $7,900, Tom Brady, $6,900

RBs:

Derrick Henry, $8,700

Henry has tremendous upside against the weak Jaguars run defense. We saw him get lost in negative game-script last week against a surging Browns team, but the Jaguars aren’t going to surprise us too much. We can feel pretty secure in a strong Henry fantasy game. The question is, how much will he hurt us if we don’t play him? He will be rostered in a good percentage of leagues, so if he has one of his 200 yards, two touchdown games, we will be kicking ourselves. But that means we’ll likely need to find value plays that we can live with.

Austin Ekeler, $7,000

Ekeler’s usage is so good that he’s tough to not have high on your list of strong cash plays each week. The Falcons run defense has played well this season, but Ekeler is such a good receiver that it shouldn’t matter too much. Ekeler also gets enough receiving work to fit in a cash lineup with Herbert, but I wouldn’t want Keenan Allen in there as well unless it’s a GPP.

J.D. McKissic, $4,900

McKissic should see a lot of targets with Antonio Gibson out this week. Last week he caught ten passes for 70 yards against a tough Steelers defense. This week he gets a tough 49ers run defense, but still should be useful as a receiver, especially with his sub-$5k price. His upside isn’t slate-breaking, but he should have a high enough floor to help you fit some of the higher-priced options.

DeAndre Washington, $4,000

Washington is a scary option in cash, but one that might work out. The Dolphins will be without Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida and Salvon Ahmed this week against a weak Chiefs run defense. Washington will get the start and has shown upside in the past, especially last season with the Raiders when Josh Jacobs was hurt. There’s no doubt that he is risky, but his usage should be strong no matter the game-script.

Other RBs I like: Aaron Jones $7,600, Giovani Bernard, $5,000

WRs:

Keenan Allen, $7,700

Allen is my favorite receiver this weekend, as his price isn’t as crazy high as Davante Adams and his usage is just as high. Allen leads the league in targets per game and when you consider the matchup, he’s tough to fade.

Curtis Samuel, $5,200

Samuel is one of my favorite plays due to both D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey out this week. His usage should shoot up and he’ll also be in line for some rushing attempts. The Broncos defense isn’t too shabby, but they can be beaten. Samuel’s increased workload should counterbalance the Broncos defense.

Allen Robinson, $6,800

A matchup with the Texans is a good one for Robinson and Mitchell Trubisky has been playing better of late. Damien Byrd, D.J. Chark and T.Y. Hilton all have put up big numbers on the Texans of late and Robinson is easily the best receiver they’ve faced since Davante Adams put up a massive 13-196-2 line.

Braxton Berrios, $3,000

If Jamison Crowder can’t play, Berrios makes for a low ceiling, but low cost play in a good matchup. Crowder has missed four games this season and in those games Berrios has had 17.9, 16.4, 7.5 and 11.4 DK points. His 7.5 target average in those games is enough to give him a good enough floor for his price, nominal as it is. Add in a positive matchup and likely game-script against the Seahawks and Berrios can help you pay up for the many studs in play this weekend.

Other WRs I like: Robby Anderson $6,200, CeeDee Lamb, $4,800, Tim Patrick, $4,200, Russell Gage, $4,500, Chris Godwin, $6,300, Corey Davis, $5,700, Calvin Ridley, $7,500, Davante Adams $9,300, DK Metcalf, $8,400, Anthony Miller, $3,900

TEs:

Robert Tonyan, $4,200

Tonyan has scored a touchdown in three straight games and had a touchdown against the Lions in Week 2. He’s not getting the targets we’d want for a smash play, but he’s had had five in each of his last three games and the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, that’s plenty for him to be a good play.

Cole Kmet, $2,900

Kmet took over the lead tight end role over Jimmy Graham and should get starting tight end usage moving forward. It’s hard to count on him seeing seven targets and scoring a touchdown again when we only have the one game to draw from, but it was a good start. He also gets a good matchup with the Texans weak pass defense.

Other TEs I like: Jordan Reed, $3,500. Irv Smith Jr., $3,100, Rob Gronkowski, $4,800, Noah Fant, $4,100, Evan Engram, $4,300, Hunter Henry, $4,400

D/ST:

Seattle Seahawks, $3,000

Seattle faces Sam Darnold and the winless Jets who will be without Denzel Mims and possibly Jamison Crowder. They also have improved defensively, especially in pressuring the quarterback in the second half of the season. They’re probably my favorite play of the week.

Dallas Cowboys, $2,400

The Cowboys get a great matchup, but they are also very bad at stopping anybody. That will be put to the test with Brandon Allen leading the way for the Bengals though.

Other D/STs I like: New Orleans Saints, $3,800, Washington Football Team, $2,800, New York Giants, $2,600

Fantasy Relevant Injuries/Moves

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is expected to play against the Cardinals and should help elevate his main pass catchers into useful fantasy plays.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey is out and Mike Davis will start against the Broncos. He’s a flex play.

Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida are all out against Kansas City. DeAndre Washington will get the start and has some fantasy appeal.

Alexander Mattison won’t play against the Buccaneers. His absence should assure Dalvin Cook a full workload again.

Josh Jacobs looks like he’ll play in a tough matchup against the Colts, but the team will take his status up to when they post their inactives.

Kenyan Drake is nursing a shoulder injury, but appears like he’ll play against the Giants. His usage has been too good to fade him in redraft.

David Johnson is out and Duke Johnson will take over against Chicago. He has some flex appeal, but hasn’t shown enough to have high hopes.

D’Andre Swift practiced in full on Friday but was still listed as questionable with an illness. The matchup with the Packers is great, but it’s tough to know what his workload will be with Peterson and Johnson in the mix. I’m playing him in redraft, but probably fading in DFS even though I really want to play him!

Antonio Gibson is out. J.D. McKissic is a useful PPR fantasy play against the 49ers.

Wide Receiver

Kenny Golladay remains out this week against the Packers. Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson will get the lead work again.

Denzel Mims is out and Jamison Crowder is questionable. Breshad Perriman and Braxton Berrios would get the biggest bumps.

D.J. Moore will miss this week, giving Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel boosts against the Broncos.

Julio Jones is out. Calvin Ridley gets a nice bump while Russell Gage has some fantasy value as well.

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph is doubtful and Irv Smith is questionable. If Smith plays and Rudolph is out, I like Smith as a fantasy play this week.

Favorite wagers

In Week 13 I went 2-1, putting me at 27-17 on the season. Remind me not to doubt the Browns or to doubt the Titans, but you have to give it to Baker Mayfield and company for their decisive and much needed victory last week.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins defense is one of the better units in the league, but the Chiefs can make the best defenses look like high schoolers. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid don’t get in extended slumps and after a slog-fest with Denver last week, I expect a crisp and decisive win over the Dolphins.

Tennessee Titans -7 over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans defense is a problem and Mike Glennon has been chucking the ball deep more than any other quarterback, so I expect the Jags to give it their best, but they have no answer for Derrick Henry. The Titans put away teams in the fourth quarter as they wear down and then gets stampeded by Henry. I don’t expect garbage points to bring this game within seven points.

Player Props

Jalen Hurts OVER 39.5 rushing yards

We saw Hurts take off with the ball five times for 29 yards against the Packers in less than a half of play. The Saints are going to get pressure against the Eagles poor offensive line, so Hurts is going to take off and add those impromptu runs to a few designed run plays and I like the over.

Rob Gronkowski OVER 35.5 receiving yards

In his last ten games, Gronk has topped 35.5 yards seven time. Now, against the Vikings, he gets a break with Eric Kendricks out. This game has the second highest over/under of the week and Gronk should have ample opportunities to hit the over.

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