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How public is betting and DFS considerations for Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy

Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy meet at men’s heavyweight during UFC Fight Night on December 19th. We break down how the betting public is picking the fight and the DFS pricing from DraftKings.

Greg Hardy poses for a portrait after his victory during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on October 31, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

In a main card heavyweight match for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Greg Hardy will take on Marcin Tybura live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.

Hardy enters the APEX as the favorite with a professional record of 7-2 and currently on a two-fight win streak. His last win came less than two months ago on October 31 at UFC Fight Night, beating Maurice Greene in the second round with a TKO by punches. He connects on 45 percent of his strikes, including 3.88 significant strikes per-minute, but is just 31 percent accurate with such strikes. Though he defends takedowns at a 67 percent clip, Hardy is yet to land a takedown of his own. Of his seven wins, six come by knockout. He defends 64 percent of significant strikes while taking in 2.41 per-minute.

Tybura is riding a three-fight winning streak going into the octagon. He has a professional record of 20-6 and heads into this fight with an advantage in the ground game. Tybura averages 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and of all his significant strikes landed, 29 percent come while on the ground. Though he lands 3.60 significant strikes per-minute, he absorbs 2.99 per-minute. His 79 percent takedown defense is impressive, but most likely won’t be a factor against Hardy. Of his 20 wins, 14 have come via knockout or decision. He’s lost four times by knockout.

Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy at UFC Fight Night on December 19th.

Odds and Betting splits

Marcin Tybura: +100 (34% of action, 28% of bets)
Greg Hardy: -124 (66% of action, 72% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Values

Marcin Tybura: $8,200
Greg Hardy: $8,000

Hardy’s fighting style is simple: knock someone out. This poses a risk/reward challenge when considering him as both a DFS play and a money bet. Though his DFS price is solid, Hardy averages just 54.75 fantasy points in his last four fights, three of which have gone to a decision. In his last three wins by knockout, though, he’s averaged 105.33 points. That is enticing, sure, but it’s not worth risking when there’s plenty of other consistent value at his price range throughout the night.

Tybura has averaged 75 fantasy points during his winning streak, all of which have come by decision. He posts a solid ceiling if he can manage to take the fight to the ground and wear out Hardy.

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