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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 13 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.

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Stacks

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Baker Mayfield ($5,300) – Jarvis Landry ($6,200) – Austin Hooper ($3,800) – Derrick Henry ($9,200)

The Titans have been terrible at defending against the pass this year. They’ve allowed the fifth-most passing yards against on the season, and opponents playing them are averaging 39.9 pass attempts per game — the second-highest mark in the league. Baker Mayfield has been a forgotten man in many respects this year, but Week 13 could see him flash for fantasy purposes against a Titans pass rush that ranks fourth-last in the league in sacks-per-game. He’s also coming off a good week against Jacksonville where he threw for multiple touchdowns for the first time in three starts and had his second-best passer rating of the season.

The Titans’ coverage is also terrible. They’ve allowed the third-most receptions to the receiver position and the seventh-most touchdowns to tight ends. The tendency if you’re targeting Cleveland in this game—which has a 54.5 O/U—might be to think run, but both Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper should see some continuation off their solid weeks against Jacksonville here. Landry showed last week what his upside is like without Odell Beckham in the lineup, finishing with 143 yards, eight receptions and a touchdown on 11 targets against the Jaguars in a surprisingly close game. No other Cleveland wide receiver had more than three targets last week. As for Hooper, he’s still playing far more snaps than any other Cleveland tight end — and at under 4k, he makes for a solid target if you want to really emphasize Cleveland’s passing attack here. He’s seen red zone targets now in each of his two games back from injury.

On the flip side, Derrick Henry could really go under-owned simply on the basis of his $1,200 price increase and the perceived poor matchup. That said, in Henry we have an running back who has averaged 25 touches in each of his last four games, on a team that is favored by -5.5 points as of writing. Cleveland has also allowed 120-plus rush yards to opposing teams RB1’s in two of their last four games. The cheapness of the Cleveland passing attack here is going to let you fit in Henry’s big salary quite easily, and the fact most will be viewing the Browns as a run-first team should keep this stack relatively under-the-radar in big GPPs.

Just Missed: Mitch Trubisky ($5,400) – Allen Robinson ($6,700) – D’Andre Swift ($6,500)


Quarterback

Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions ($5,400)

With an offense that can’t run the ball and his favorite team on tap, we may have the perfect storm here for a Mitchapolooza rebirth. The Lions have been the one team Trubisky has performed well against consistently throughout his career, averaging 277 passing yards and three touchdowns in his last four games against them. Detroit comes in ranked 27th in sacks per game this year, while allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt in the league. Whoever is starting at quarterback for Chicago is likely to throw the ball a ton, too, with Nick Foles attempting 40 or more passes in three straight starts prior to getting injured against Minnesota, while Trubisky let it fly 42-times last week against Green Bay. Now announced as the starter for Week 13, Trubisky is cheap, still possesses a little rushing upside and has an elite WR1 in Allen Robinson ($6,700) to stack him with. Trubisky may break our hearts (again) but there’s no doubt the trends and matchup here make him too good of a GPP target to pass on for Week 13.

Just Missed: Justin Herbert ($6,900)


Running Back

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears ($6,500)

Swift is still questionable, but it looks like he will return from his concussion in Week 13. In his one game as the anointed starter in Week 10, Swift played on 73% of the snaps and complied 149 all-purposes yards on 21 touches — all season-highs for a Lions RB. The production should mean the job is once again his when he returns this week. While the matchup with the Bears isn’t ideal, it will make him less chalky in GPPs. The Bears can certainly be run on, too, as they allowed Swift’s teammate, Adrian Peterson ($4,900) to compile 124 yards on just 17 touches against them in Week 1 this year. With the Lions defense playing so poorly, Swift’s usage in the passing game here could also take a huge leap. The bottom-line is we have an explosive pass-catching back who has been promoted into a near bell-cow role, and given his recent injury combined with this week’s matchup, we can likely roster him at palatable ownership. He’s a great mid-tier target and someone to build stacks around for what could be a semi-explosive game between the Bears and Lions.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans ($5,700)

Taylor missed last week’s game against the Titans, but it likely didn’t hurt fantasy owners much as Indy was behind for most of that game against a solid Titans run defense. This week, though, presents a much better opportunity as the Colts take on Houston, who feature one of the worst rush defenses in the league. The Texans have given up 4.9 YPC against this year and have ceded the second-most DKFP to opposing running backs. Houston’s opponents are also averaging 31.3 rush attempts against them, the second-highest mark in the league in that metric. So the opportunities for Taylor here should be plentiful. With Philip Rivers ($5,900-questionable) ailing (toe) and the Texans providing a favorable matchup, expect Taylor to bounce directly back into a heavier role here. He took 26 touches in Week 11 against Green Bay and could see a similar workload here against a porous rush defense.

Just Missed: Chris Carson ($6,300)



Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions ($3,400)

Mooney has been a tantalizing yet frustrating figure for most fantasy pundits this season. The rookie has looked good on the field, getting constant separation with his sub-4.4-second speed. He also ranks among the elite players in several advanced metrics, like air yards and aDOT. Still, Mooney comes into this game with just one touchdown on the season and has only cracked more than 50 receiving yards twice in a game. Mooney did get quite a bit of love last week from the reinstalled Mitch Trubisky ($5,400), with his 9 targets being the second-highest mark for him on the season. Detroit has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year, allowing 7.6 yards per pass play — the fifth-worst mark in the league. With Trubisky often saving his best games for the Lions, Mooney makes for a good GPP target here because the Bears could pass heavily again in this game, given their issues rushing the ball.

Breshad Perriman, New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($3,900)

It feels like one of the Jets’ receiving core could go off for a big fantasy day in Week 13, and Perriman has looked like the most explosive of the bunch lately. The former Raven, Brown and Buc has gone for 50 or more yards now in each of his last three games and averaged 20.81 yards per catch over that span. The Raiders should be giving Sam Darnold ($5,000) plenty of time in the pocket this week, too, given they rank second-to-last in the league in sacks per game. Las Vegas’ secondary has also been brutalized by their lack of pass rush. The Raiders come into this game having ceded eight touchdowns to the receiver position over their last six games. While rookie Denzel Mims ($4,100) is also in a good spot here to potentially nab his first touchdown, Perriman has been the greater big-play threat so far and is also cheaper, making him the slightly preferred play for me in this group.

Just Missed: Keke Coutee ($3,500)


Tight End

Evan Engram, New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks ($4,900)

Engram carries some risk since Colt McCoy ($4,800) is going to be starting at quarterback, but before you write him off, make sure you take into account the matchup here. Seattle has been terrible against the pass all season, allowing the most pass attempts against per game (44.6) and most pass yards against per game, as well (328.8 yards). Even run-heavy San Francisco was able to put up 322 passing yards against the Seahawks with Nick Mullens in at quarterback for most of the game. Engram is coming off his best performance of the season, but is assured low sentiment, given the quarterback change, and is facing a Seattle defense who has now allowed five touchdowns to the tight end position over the last five games. We’re siding with matchup and Engram’s talent over quarterback-play and a Giants offense, who has thrown for the second-fewest touchdowns this season, but there’s good reasons for doing that. As he proved last week when he posted 129 yards and 20.9 DKFP, Engram’s upside is tremendous and given the setup he does, once again, make for a perfect GPP target at an admittedly tough position.

Just Missed: Hunter Henry ($4,800)


DST

Indianapolis Colts ($3,000) at Houston Texans

This game screams bounce-back for the Colts, whose defensive unit was ultimately embarrassed last week by Derrick Henry ($9,200) and the power-run game of the Titans. The Texans possess no such type of run game, though. They also lost their best big-play receiver in Will Fuller (SSPD) for the season. While Deshaun Watson ($7,500) has played great over the last month and a half this would have been a tough spot for him, even with his best wide receiver. The Colts have allowed the six-fewest passing touchdowns on the year and just 209-yards passing per game — the sixth-best mark in the league. They were without DeForest Buckner in the middle last week (COVID-19), but at least have a shot to get him back here. Indy’s DST has averaged 9.4 DKFP on the road this year and rank seventh in the league in turnovers. This is a good unit that can’t be happy about what happened to them last week. Expect a bounce-back and more against the now-wounded Texans.

Just missed: Cincinnati Bengals ($2,300)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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