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Breaking down betting splits for NBA Opening Night

We go over how the public is betting Warriors vs. Nets and Lakers vs. Clippers to start off the 2020-21 NBA season.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James and forward Anthony Davis against the Phoenix Suns during a preseason game at Phoenix Suns Arena. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The 2020-21 NBA regular season gets going on Tuesday night with two big-time matchups. We’ve got the Golden State Warriors and Stephen Curry taking on the Brooklyn Nets and Kevin Durant. It’s KD’s first game since the 2019 NBA playoffs and his first game against the Dubs since leaving in free agency. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Los Angeles Clippers to get things going out West. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are set to receive their rings from the 2020 title run.

We’ve had the lines for these games posted for a while now and the movement has been up and down. We got some betting splits courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, so here’s how the public is betting both games for Opening Night.

It’s no surprise that with the Draymond Green news, the majority of the public is backing the Nets on the spread and moneyline. Since the line opened at around 5.5 points, we’ve seen 2.0 point movement in favor of Brooklyn.

The O/U when these splits were sent over was 229.5, that number has skyrocketed up to 234.5 points, so this one should see a ton of scoring. With the rapid movement though, it’s getting tougher to back the over this high, especially when both teams could start off the season a bit rusty. It’s been a while since a lot of the Dubs’ players have played an actual game, less adrenaline with no crowds, plenty of factors.

As for Lakers-Clippers, the defending champs are getting backed heavily, which isn’t surprising. The Lakers are loaded with Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell in town and the Clippers won’t have Marcus Morris. Still, the line has moved in favor of the Clippers, down to Lakers -2.5. This could be a game that comes down to the final possession. If it isn’t, my guess is the Lakers take care of business pretty easily.

I realize it’s two good defensive teams, but an O/U of 220 seems a bit low. That’s what the number is at right now and there was a lot of action on the under at 220.5. The line hasn’t moved drastically, however, so that should tell us this number is pretty well set. I could see the game going either way. Though, both teams should be slightly worse on defense. The Lakers could be vulnerable on the interior without Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee. No Morris for the Clips is one less physical presence.

NBA Opening Night Betting Splits

Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
Teams Point Spread % Handle % Bets Total Points % Handle % Bets Moneyline % Handle % Bets
GS Warriors 7.5 26% 35% Over 229.5 64% 68% 245 20% 19%
BKN Nets -7.5 74% 65% Under 229.5 36% 32% -305 80% 81%
LA Clippers 3.5 13% 13% Over 220.5 22% 61% 135 18% 19%
LA Lakers -3.5 87% 87% Under 220.5 78% 39% -162 82% 81%

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