Game day update: Ever since Taysom Hill has been the starting quarterback for the Saints, we’ve seen their playmakers production take a dip. One of those players is Alvin Kamara, who has not rushed for at least 60 yards since Week 8. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray has 230 rushing yards and three touchdowns in New Orleans’ last three games.
This week, they face a Falcons’ defense that is only giving up 13 points per game to opposing running backs. ESPN projects Kamara, Murray to score 13.5 and 8.2 fantasy points, respectively.
While the Saints certainly benefitted from the Week 12 mess of COVID-19 cases that caused all three Broncos quarterbacks to sit out, this game would likely still have been a blow out. Maybe not 31-3, but somewhere in that range. In Week 13, New Orleans visits Atlanta for the second leg of the NFC South division rivalry. With Drew Brees still sidelined, can we turn to Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray for offensive production?
Fantasy Football analysis: Saints RBs Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray
It’s a unique situation. Taysom Hill’s first game filling in for the injured Drew Brees was in Week 11, and it happened to be against the Falcons. We can use that game as a reasonable compass to point us in the right direction of predictable outcomes. The Saints won 24-9, and both Kamara and Murray logged exactly 10.5 DKFP. Since Brees has been gone, Kamara’s top tier fantasy value has plummeted, resulting in his two lowest scores of the season (by a lot). The most alarming statistic is the target total for Kamara. Hill is far less comfortable checking down to his running back than Brees, giving Kamara a total of three targets in two games.
It’s hard to say whether or not the Saints plan to keep feeding Murray, who out-touched his counterpart 21-12 against the Broncos last week. The most likely scenario is that in a more competitive environment, like this matchup against the Falcons, the two rushers will split the workload in New Orleans’ run-centric game plan. It will be difficult to completely trust either one of these guys for as long as Taysom Hill is the starter.
Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation
Regardless of his recent performances, you still have to start Kamara because, well, he’s Kamara. Only start Murray if you’re starving for a RB2/FLEX.