In a co-main event match at light heavyweight for UFC Fight Night, Jamahal Hill will take on Ovince Saint Preux on Saturday, live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
Hill enters the APEX as the favorite in just his third career UFC fight. The 29-year-old Chicago native holds a professional record of 7-0 with a no-decision, as his most recent victory in May against Kildson Abreu at UFC on ESPN 9 was overturned due to a positive marijuana test by the Nevada State Athletic Commission. Had the fight stood, Hill would’ve been credited with a TKO in Round 1. Including the May fight, Hill averages 6.82 strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 44 percent. He’s absorbing 4.39 strikes per minute, though, and defends just 48 percent of them.
For the 37-year-old Saint Preux, he heads to the octagon with a professional fighting record of 25-14. He won his first fight of 2020 at UFC Vegas 9 in September against Alonzo Menifield via KO with a left hook in the second round.
Saint Preux has won six of his last 11 matches via submission, as he averages 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, and .49 submissions per 15 minutes. His best bet is to be tactical against the aggressive Hill. Saint Preux lands just 2.49 strikes per minute and takes 3.97, defending just 45 percent.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jamahal Hill at UFC Fight Night on December 5th.
Odds and Betting splits
Ovince Saint Preux: +140 (72% of action, 57% of bets)
Jamahal Hill: -177, (28% of action, 43% of bets)
Winning method splits
Ovince St. Preux By Submission +325, 46% of action, 38% of bets
Ovince St. Preux By KO, TKO or DQ +650 28% of action, 23% of bets
Ovince St. Preux By Decision +550 13% of action, 11% of bets
Jamahal Hill By KO, TKO or DQ +165 7% of action, 19% of bets
Tie +6600 5% of action, 2% of bets
Jamahal Hill By Decision +275 < 1% of action, 4% of bets
Jamahal Hill By Submission +1400 < 1% of action, 2% of bets
Ovince Saint Preux: $7,800
Jamahal Hill: $8,400
There’s a huge difference in DFS price and public betting for this fight. Saint Preux’s history of submission wins garners him the action the splits show. He was priced at $7,900 in his last fight, scoring 97 fantasy points thanks to the KO. To get him priced lower after coming off such a win provides solid value.
Meanwhile, Hill’s price stays as it was in his last fight against Abreu, where he scored 117 fantasy points. This isn’t a bad price at all considering he’s the ninth-most expensive DFS play. If he’s able to stay aggressive especially with last fight’s ruling, you can find value.
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