Marvin Vettori faces Jack Hermansson in a welterweight match for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, live from Las Vegas and available on ESPN+.
Vettori heads to the octagon as the favorite having won three consecutive fights. With a professional record of 15-4-1, Vettori’s last win at UFC on ESPN 10 was dominant, defeating Karl Robertson in Round 1 via submission with a rear naked choke.
Vettori will look to win using his striking and submission efficiency. In his submission win against Robertson, Vettori connected on 76 percent of his strikes, landing 60 total to Robertson’s four. Where he might find himself in trouble against Hermansson, though, is in his accuracy.
Hermansson connects on 56 percent of his strikes to Vettori’s 42 percent. “The Joker” heads to the APEX with a professional record of 21-5 with his most recent win at UFC Fight Night in July, beating Kelvin Gastelum in Round 1 via submission. The 32-year-old lands 4.90 significant strikes per minute and allows opponents to connect on just 1.77 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, where 46 percent of all his significant strikes take place on the ground. Vettori defends the takedown well, preventing 81 percent of opponent attempts.
Here are the odds and betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori at UFC Fight Night on December 5th.
Odds and Betting splits
Jack Hermansson: +116 (68% of action, 76% of bets)
Marvin Vettori: -141, (32% of action, 24% of bets)
Winning method splits
Jack Hermansson By Submission +350 59% of action, 66% of bets
Jack Hermansson By KO, TKO or DQ +500 15% of action, 8% of bets
Jack Hermansson By Decision +500 13% of action, 7% of bets
Marvin Vettori By Decision+333 12% of action, 12% of bets
Marvin Vettori By KO, TKO or DQ +260 2% of action, 4% of bets
Marvin Vettori By Submission +500< 1% of action, 3% of bets
Tie+6600 < 1% of action, < 1% of bets
Jack Hermansson: $8,000
Marvin Vettori: $8,200
Hermansson is drawing a lot of bets his way as the underdog, especially in bets having him win by submission. He’s won three of his last five fights by submission, averaging 94.8 fantasy points in the span.
On the other hand, Vettori’s DFS value is solid given he hasn’t been under $8,600 during his winning streak. Your best bet might be to fade Vettori though, as he’s averaging just 57 points in bouts that come down to a decision, which is what six of his last eight have led to.
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