There are three game-scripts that would be the most likely if the Chiefs were to win the Super Bowl. One is, the Chiefs start hot, get a big lead and then either coast or hold off a late 49ers run. We could also see a close battle throughout, where the two teams trade leads until the final seconds. The Chiefs could also get down early and then punch their way out of the corner to come back and win.
All of the scenarios that end in a Chiefs win likely are precipitated by a good passing game from Patrick Mahomes. The usage of Damien Williams would likely get a boost with a big lead and Mahomes’ pass attempts would get a bump if the Chiefs trailed for much of the game, but on average, the Chiefs are going to throw the ball no matter the score.
Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs OVER 1.5, -112
Last season Mahomes topped 1.5 touchdowns in 15 of his 17 games. This season has seen a big drop in his touchdowns, but he also played through injuries and has looked great in the playoffs with eight touchdown passes and has topped this number in four of his last five games. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes will more than likely hit the over on this prop.
Emmanuel Sanders receptions OVER 3.5, +130
If the Chiefs win this game, the 49ers will have likely gotten Sanders involved, as they will need to throw the ball more in order to try to overtake Kansas City with time dwindling.
Jimmy Garoppolo rushing yards OVER 4.5, -106
If the Chiefs win, Garoppolo will likely drop back to throw way more than he usually does, which means he’ll have more opportunities to scramble. In their three losses this season, Garoppolo has hit this over twice.
Mecole Hardman receiving yards OVER 22.5, -112
Hardman saw more snaps than Demarcus Robinson in the Championship game and Andy Reid gets an extra week to prepare, which has me bullish on a long completion to Hardman, especially if the Chiefs end up winning this game.
Team to commit most turnovers, 49ers, -118
Kansas City and the 49ers have the same turnover ratio, but if the Chiefs end up leading and winning, Garoppolo will be forced to throw more than usual and he does have 13 interceptions on the season, including one in the playoffs. Desperation is at its peak late in a Super Bowl game down by two scores.
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