Super Bowl 54 has been broken down and built back up and then broken down again by every analyst who’s ever seen a football. You can study the stats and the matchups until you collapse from football-itis (rare football bone malady). But, at some point you have to make your picks and say, this is who I am. I take my stand here and now. Or, you could be less dramatic.
Patrick Mahomes (Captain $18,900, Flex, $12,600)
I like Garoppolo a lot in this game as well, but Mahomes is still the clear upside play based on common sense. His price is extremely high though, which makes it tough to have him with the other studs, especially if you use him in the captain’s spot. But, there are enough value plays and competent kickers, to go the Mahomes route. That doesn’t mean you can’t play Garoppolo too, as his price is good and he should be called on to throw more often than usual against Kansas City. I will likely have plenty of lineups with both, as I think this game will come down to their abilities.
Raheem Mostert (Captain $14,100, Flex $9,400)
I am fading Damien Williams completely agaist the 49ers defense, which is strong against the run and receiving backs. And, even if the 49ers are forced to throw much more than they’d like, Mostert will still see plenty of work, as Matt Breida appears to be in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse and Tevin Coleman won’t be at 100 percent. When you have the most prolific running back offense of the season and the touches narrowed a bit, I don’t think you can skip on Mostert this week.
Deebo Samuel (Captain $11,400, Flex $7,600)
I may be a little too high on Samuel for this game, but he’s my favorite play in the Super Bowl and his price is good enough to be able to fit in every lineup. Samuel was getting into the end zone regularly toward the end of the season, both on the ground and through the air, but the 49ers haven’t needed to do much through the air in the playoffs. Still, Samuel has been the No. 1 receiver while also getting carries in their two playoff games. His 88 receiving yards in the two playoff games is 40 more than any other 49er and 42 percent of the total team receiving yards. His ability after the catch also makes him a scoring threat every time he touches the ball, giving him plenty of upside even if he doesn’t see a huge amount of touches.
Emmanuel Sanders (Captain $7,800, Flex $5,200)
The best value at receiver is with the 49ers, as they haven’t been doing much in the playoffs and it has brought their prices down. They should be asked to do more in the Super Bowl, which is great for us, as we get cheaper plays with more upside. Sanders has played well when healthy and needed, which hasn’t been all that often, but the two games where he reached nine targets with the 49ers were big fantasy games and there’s a good chance he’ll see his targets rise this week.
Kendrick Bourne (Captain $5,100, Flex $3,400)
There are a few value options I can get on board with, but Bourne had the second-most targets and scored a touchdown in their Divisional round matchup with the Vikings and I like his matchup out of the slot with the Chiefs. Kansas City has been weakest against slot receivers and running backs in the receiving game and Bourne should be in a good position to take advantage. I’m relying on the 49ers needing to throw more in this matchup and Bourne should be involved.
Mecole Hardman (Captain $3,300, Flex $2,200)
Tyreek Hill is a great play, but his price is a bit limiting. Hardman is a big play receiver, who I expect to get his chances in the Super Bowl at a rock-bottom price. He’s risky for sure, but he’s perfect for a DraftKings Showdown game.
George Kittle (Captain $12,600, Flex $8,400)
Kittle’s recent production has been concerning, but much like the other 49ers pass-catchers, he’s primed for an increase in work and for Kittle, that would mean returning to the No. 1 target job. Of course, his price is higher than his recent stat lines would suggest but lower than his usual production and not even close to his upside.
Travis Kelce (Captain $14,400, Flex $9,600)
Kelce’s price is up there, but I like him for a solid game. The Chiefs will likely combat the 49ers pass rush with short passes to Kelce and I don’t think they have a defender who can shut him down. If I’m paying up for a pass-catcher, Kelce is my first choice.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is cogresha) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.