So let’s say you think the DraftKings Sportsbook has it all wrong. Let’s say you think the 49ers, who are the current underdogs of Super Bowl LIV, are in a great position to shock the world and beat the favored Chiefs? Not only would you be joining the thoughts of many but, you could take advantage of some of the prop bets the DKSB is offering. In this piece, we’ll take a look at some of those to take advantage of if you believe the 49ers will walk out of Miami as champions.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 35.5 pass attempts (-143)
If the 49ers are coming away with a victory, the Chiefs will be the team playing from behind. With that in mind, Mahomes should surpass the current pass attempt total at 35.5. While it feels like a very high number, this is an area he frequently is near in every game. In fact, on the season, he’s averaging 34.6 per game through 16 games. Had this number been set all throughout the season, Mahomes would have hit the over six times, or 37% of the season. For what it’s worth, he hit exactly 35 pass attempts on three other occasions, pitting him right at this number. In the three games the Chiefs played that Mahomes played, he threw the ball an average of 41.3 times. So if you’re thinking the 49ers will come away with a victory, think about taking the over on Mahomes’ pass attempts.
Super Bowl Game total UNDER 54 points (-110)
The interesting scenario to consider if the 49ers win is the under for the game total. Currently fluctuating between 54 and 54.5, one of the keys to victories for the 49ers could be their ground game. While the Chiefs secondary has been solid all throughout the year, beating them on the ground has been a success strategy implemented by teams. If that’s the case, the 49ers could not only slow this game down but keep the Chiefs offense off the field. By keeping the ball on the ground, the 49ers can feast on a Chiefs run defense that’s allowed an average of 103 rushing yards and 4.7 YPC. This would also open up the opportunity to take the over on Raheem Mostert’s props like over 15.5 rushing attempts (-134) and rushing yards, which is set at 77.5 (-106). The 49ers run the ball much more than the Chiefs, as they’ve done so on 49% of their offensive snaps compared to 33% by the Chiefs. By taking away one of the Chiefs best weapons in Mahomes, this game could easily go under the high projected total.
Position of MVP Award Winner
Running Back/Fullback +500
Going with the same mentality that the 49ers key to victory was to keep the Chiefs off the field, it makes sense to see a running back win the MVP honors. Not only are you getting a great ROI on your bet but you’re getting multiple players to win this award. The quarterback position is the favorite to win at -230 and rightfully so. Of all the Super Bowl’s played, that position has won 29 times, or 54%. The honor has only gone to a running back seven times, or 13%. While the odds are slim, it’s certainly not out of the question. Over the last 10 years, if a quarterback wasn’t winning the award, a linebacker won twice and a wide receiver.
This prop gives you more than one player to potentially win, although we’re mainly taking this for Mostert. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida would also be in the mix, even though their involvement could be minimal. Heck, even if the 49ers lost this game and for some reason Damien Williams went off, you’d still win! As I mentioned though, the idea behind this is that the 49ers pounded the ball with Mostert and thus lead to them taking down the Super Bowl. In their two playoff wins, Mostert has carried the ball 41 times for 278 yards and four touchdowns. Even with the majority of production coming in the one game against the Packers, the Chiefs have a similarly poor run defense, opening up many opportunities for Mostert. I like the idea of casting out this bet to include a number of players and not keeping yourself to the two of Mahomes or Jimmy Garoppolo. You can also lessen your risk by taking “MVP Award Winner to be a QB” and take “NO” for +167.
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