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It’s not a huge board in college basketball tonight, but there are a few games with some stakes. We pick a couple winners here.
Baylor vs. Texas Under 128.5
The advantage the extra-long-and-bouncy Bears have on their competition is their elite athleticism. But that’s one place where Hook ‘Em can compete: they’re pretty athletic too.
These two teams combine to average 284th in college basketball in adjusted pace, and are both top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s going to be a rock fight, and the first to 50 wins.
And as is often the case in college basketball, the wounded animal is the toughest. UT knows tonight is probably for their postseason (barring a conference tournament win). They’ve squandered too many opportunities against good opponents all year, and they will commit defensively tonight. But it might not quite be enough to cover six. Root for rebounds and go under.
Texas Tech- 10 vs. TCU
Two teams trending in opposite directions, as TCU has lost five in a row in the Big XII and seems to look worse each time. Different lineup combinations haven’t helped the lethargy, and they might get a better effort playing the student managers and SID’s instead of their bottom-of-the-conference bench. They’re 1-5 ATS on the road, 7-15 ATS on the season, and are fully cognizant that they’re going nowhere this season.
Meanwhile Texas Tech seems to be rounding into form, sweeping Oklahoma and Texas last week, covering three of their last four, and missing the fourth by half a point. They’re sixth in adjusted defensive average, and TCU can’t score anyway. If TCU’s pace wasn’t in the 300’s, we might grab under 127.5 here too. But we’ll stick with the Horned Frogs becoming cuisses de grenouille on the road.
FSU +8 vs. Duke
For all the reasons we explained here.
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