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Considering a best bet for the Cincinnati Reds 2020 win total

After a disappointing 2019 campaign, the Reds made some moves to redeem themselves in 2020 in what could be a wide open race in the NL Central.

Cincinnati Reds right fielder Aristides Aquino watches his RBI double against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

It was yet another disappointing season for the Cincinnati Reds who had the roster to compete but could never get to that point. They ended up sellers at the trade deadline and moved along a good chunk of their roster, waving the white flag on 2019 in the process. With a fresh start to 2020, the team has made a number of moves this offseason to once again try and be competitive in what feels like an NL Central that could be up for grabs. Can the Reds take advantage of a division that could suddenly be in flux? We’ll take a look.

Additions

SP Wade Miley
RP Jose De Leon
RP Justin Shafer
3B Mike Moustakas
OF Nick Castellanos
OF Shogo Akiyama
OF Mark Payton
OF Travis Jankowski

Subtractions

SP Kevin Gausman
SP Alex Wood
SS Jose Iglesias
SS Jose Peraza

Offseason news

The biggest name that jumps out at you in the offseason moves is Moustakas. The power-hitting third baseman stays in the same division after spending time with the Brewers. Moustakas slashed .254/.329/.516 with 35 home runs and 87 RBI through 143 games. His move to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park should continue to make him a massive power threat at the second base position. Between Eugenio Suarez, Aristides Aquino and the recently signed Castellanos, the heart of the Reds lineup will be loaded with power. Last season, Castellano slashed .289/.337/.525 with 27 home runs and 73 RBI through 151 games. This team is should crush the ball, and the move to bring in Castellanos only upped their win total by one, which seems to present some really good value at taking the over. It’s still a big, eight game jump in their win total from last season but the moves that they’ve made in terms of power should really push them over their projected win total.

One move that could have slipped under the radar was the signing of OF Shogo Akiyama. The Japanese outfielder signed a three-year deal and is expected to bounce all around the outfield while batting leadoff. The 31-year-old slashed .303/.392/.471 with 20 home runs and 12 steals over 143 games with the Saitama Seibu Lions before becoming a free agent. For a team that was rotating a number of players into the leadoff spot last season, having a solidified bat in that position will be a welcoming sight.

Finally, the Reds shored up the back end of their rotation by bringing in Miley. Despite pitching in a tough AL West division, Miley came away with a solid season for the Astros, tossing 167.1 innings with a 3.98 ERA, 140 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP. Moving to Great American Ball Park will ding some of those numbers, as it’s one of the most hitter-friendly places in all of baseball. Despite that, joining Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer makes for one of the more impressive rotations in all of baseball. If it pans out as projected, it could be one of the strongest points of this team.

Best bet

The Reds did lose a couple of players, especially defensively. Last season, they ended with a .984 fielding percentage, which ranked them 12th in the league. Even with that in mind, they’ve built a roster impressive enough to be more competitive than they were last season. With the division looking wide up for 2020, I think the Reds have a chance to make a run for it and not find themselves as basement dwellers once again. With that said, I’d feel comfortable taking the over on the 83.5 win total DraftKings Sportsbook has it set at currently. If this number starts to creep up a bit more, I’d be a little more cautious at taking the over but 83.5 feels like a perfect number to work with.

Reds OVER 83.5 wins

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