clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Considering a best bet for the Houston Astros 2020 win total

The Astros offseason was plenty busy but for all the wrong reasons. With so much going on, we examine how their team total for 2020 could pan out.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve celebrates with shortstop Alex Bregman after scoring during the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals in game three of the 2019 World Series at Nationals Park. Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are by far, in my humble opinion, the toughest team to get a read in for the upcoming 2020 season. Of course, we can bet on the talent because this team has PLENTY of that. However, we also have a lot to consider. This team DID lose a lot this offseason and some important pieces at that. How do you replace someone like Gerrit Cole you may ask? You don’t. How do you comeback from one of the biggest scandals that has rocked the MLB offseason? You may not. We have A LOT to consider when it comes to the Astros so let’s try and make some sense of their upcoming season.

Additions

SP Austin Pruitt

Manager Dusty Baker
General manger James Click

Subtractions

SP Gerrit Cole
SP Wade Miley
SP Aaron Sanchez
RP Will Harris
RP Hector Rondon
C Robinson Chirinos
C Dustin Garneau
OF Jake Marisnick

Manager A.J. Hinch
General manager Jeff Luhnow

Offseason news

To be fair, I’m not going to bore you with the sign-stealing scandal. I’m fairly positive you’re aware of it if you’re looking for a way to bet the Astros. If you need a refresher, you can go here. Now that you’re all caught up, the loss of A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow can’t be overlooked. Dusty Baker was hired to replace Hinch, who boasted a 481-329 record during the regular season and managed this team to a World Series title in 2017. While Baker has been a very successful manager throughout his career, leading four different franchises to the playoffs, this is by far the most tumultuous organization to join ahead of the 2020 season.

In terms of players, the loss of Cole cannot be overstated. Give me all the stats you want, he was, in my eyes, the 2019 Cy Young award winner over Justin Verlander. Winning 20 games for the first time in his career, Cole boasted a K% of 40, a 16.8% swing-and-miss rate and stranded 83.3% of the baserunners he allowed. You don’t just go out in free agency and replace someone like that. The team also lost Wade Miley, who is far from a name like Cole but was an important piece of this rotation. While his production tailed off in the second half, Miley would consistently give you innings. He threw 167.1 while making 33 starts. The Astros will be getting back the service of Lance McCullers, who is coming back from Tommy John surgery but rumblings have come up about him being on an innings limit this season.

Overall, the Astros have been very quiet this offseason and quite frankly, for good reason. A lack of management for a period of time didn’t help matters, but now comes the question of how competitive this team will be. It’s been proven that the Astros had a clear advantage playing at home. The numbers help paint that picture, as the Astros slashed .284/.362/.516 at home and .265/.343/.476 on the road. Numerous players have voiced their displeasure against this team so in the beginning, it’ll be interesting to see how these players are treated, especially guys like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. The constant microscope this team will be under won’t help matters.

Best bet

Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, the win total for the Astros is set at an even 96. It’s the only team at an even number, opening up the possibility of a push if they landed at 96. I’m leaning on the under for this one. It’s 11 games lower than the 107 they won last year but this is also a team that went a ridiculous 60-21 at home. Think they can do that again with a level playing field? I’m going out on a limb and saying no. The losses in their rotation could be too much to overcome and quite frankly, I have some concerns about the reigning Cy Young winner in Justin Verlander. Sure, he was great but the rising number of home runs he’s allowing has to be a concern. With SO MUCH uncertainty, I think the under is the safer play.

Houston Astros UNDER 96 wins.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.