The San Francisco 49ers are 1.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, with the total sitting up at 54 points. That means we should see a close game with a lot of points, not only giving us an exciting Super Bowl, but a good game for fantasy purposes. Below are some plays to consider on the slate if you’re looking to build the most balanced lineup at DraftKings.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs ($18,900)
Mahomes is obviously the most dangerous weapon in the game, so paying up to captain him makes a ton of sense. He’s on the (slightly) favored team, and Kansas City has a team total set at 27.5. Mahomes passing props are essentially set at 300 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns, not to mention he’s posted a 15-106-1 line on the ground in two playoff games. While reaching his postseason average of 38 DKFP seems lofty against the 49ers’ top ranked pass defense (in terms of yards per game), rostering Mahomes gives you the player with the safest floor on the slate.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers ($12,000)
The Captain Gorgeous route, I mean Courageous route takes us to Jimmy G. The Chiefs have the four most expensive players on the slate, which does seem a little silly for a near pick ‘em game. But Garoppolo is the third-most expensive player on his own team, seventh-most expensive on the slate. He’s also scored a grand total of 11.2 DKFP in the postseason — that’s 14.7% of Mahomes’ fantasy production in the same span. But we’re not rostering these guys based on what they’ve done. The Super Bowl is a buy-low spot on Jimmy G, in the game he finally may be asked/forced to push the ball downfield to keep up. This is the cheapest salary Jimmy G has been on a showdown slate all season. If he scratches that 30-DKFP ceiling we saw on a few occasions this season, he’s well worth the buy, especially at lower ownership.
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers ($9,400)
Mostert will likely be the most heavily owned Niner, but with good reason. It’s certainly a square approach to pay up for the guy who ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC title game after his salary goes up $3,000, but we have to consider what San Francisco’s game plan will be. The Chiefs did a good job stopping Derrick Henry, but the 49ers should still look to run the ball out of the gates, as KC ranks just 23rd in DKFP allowed to RB this season. If it fails, or the 49ers fall behind multiple scores, that’s likely when they turn to Jimmy G. This could still be a 20-100-1 game for Mostert, which makes him a tough fade.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers ($8,400)
Again, this is a buy-low spot on the entire San Francisco passing game. Kittle’s been a ghost in the postseason, with a 4-35-0 line on six targets, but he hasn’t been needed anywhere along the way. It’s tough to imagine the 49ers won’t need production through the air to get past Mahomes and Co., which sets up a bounce-back game. Kittle matches his season-low in salary on a showdown slate — the only other time he was $8,400 he ripped off a 6-129-1 line against the Packers in Week 12 for 27.9 DKFP. Kansas City was the fifth-worst team defending the TE position this season. He should be the go-to guy in the passing game, seeing plenty of opportunity.
I am an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.