Preseason odds for NFL teams are a good way to look back to see expectations for the season and start to understand where things went wrong or right. Below, we will take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook’s preseason odds for win totals, division titles, player props and more while we discuss what led to their triumphs or disappointments.
Super Bowl: +750
AFC East: -590
Win Total Over/Under: 11
It was a massive letdown year by the Patriots’ standards, but they did accomplish what they seemingly do each season, winning the AFC East and exceeding their win total. Winning one of the weakest divisions in football was a piece of cake, although the Bills made some noise with their playoff appearance, but the odds indicated that — nobody was betting the AFC East odds other than using it as a parlay piece. While the over on 11 wins was relatively sweat free, it came with more drama than it needed to for a team that started 8-0. A Week 16 victory over the Dolphins got the Pats to 12 wins, but a Week 17 home loss to the Dolphins as 17-point favorites would’ve been a brutal beat had the win total wound up pushing. New England ended the season 12-4.
As for the Super Bowl odds, the Pats checked in at +260 to win it all after starting 6-0, looking like one of the strongest futures tickets you could hold if you got +750 prior to the season. In fact, the Patriots were less than even money to win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl at different points during the first half of the season. In the end, that only created more value if you were to invest in Chiefs’ futures.
Tom Brady MVP: +1400
Tom Brady passing yards: 4,150.5
Tom Brady passing TDs: 29.5
Sony Michel rushing yards: 1,000.5
Sony Michel rushing TDs: 9
James White rushing + receiving yards: 950.5
James White rushing + receiving TDs: 7.5
Julian Edelman receiving yards: 950.5
Julian Edelman receiving TDs: 6
Stephon Gilmore DPOY: Off the board to start season
It wasn’t a good year to be placing futures on player props for the Pats. Brady fell short of both his yards and touchdowns props by pretty decent margins, and was never really in the running for MVP. Even when the team was 8-0, the success was attributed to the defense, keeping TB12 out of the MVP frontrunners.
The defensive success, however, did vault Gilmore into the DPOY odds. Even during the final month of the season, Gilmore was available to win the award at even odds, before rapidly being bet down to -250. It turned out the cash flow that hammered that number down was correct, as Gilmore won the award the night before the Super Bowl.
Given the lack of offense in New England, Michel and White went under on their yardage and touchdown props. Edelman was the only source of profit on offense, somehow creeping over his yardage prop in an injury plagued season. His six touchdowns pushed on the total too, so those bettors didn’t lose any money.
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