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San Diego State stunned at home by UNLV: Did the Aztecs just blow a No. 1 seed?

What the heck just happened? And did SDSU just play their way out of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

San Diego State Aztecs forward Matt Mitchell attempts a three-point shot in the final second against UNLV Rebels forward Vitaliy Shibel and guard Marvin Coleman at Viejas Arena. UNLV won 66-63.  Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

What did you just do, San Diego State Aztecs? After playing with fire several times season in the first half, your dream of an undefeated regular season burned down in a 66-63 loss at home to the UNLV Rebels on Saturday night at Viejas Arena. You were down 12 at intermission, never got better than a 54% win probability in the second half, and had 19 turnovers to a team that’s 261st in America in creating them.

Did you just blow a No. 1 seed? According to Jerry Palm, not yet, as he still has you on the top line and heading to the East Regional. The 2-line in that quadrant for now probably belongs to the best team in the ACC.

Did you just make your odds worse to win the national championship? Well apparently not, as you’re actually now a 20-1 shot at DraftKings Sportsbook, but were 22-1 last week. Maybe the bettors are thinking is this gets the pressure off now?

The one thing you do need to be concerned about is that while you’re getting a pair of Q2 wins (at best) in your regular season finale on the road at Nevada and against Utah State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, B1G teams are playing Q1 games every night. Maryland sits behind you for now, but if they win out in the regular season and the Big Ten Tournament championship, you might be getting passed because you just don’t have the schedule in the MWC to keep pace.

The same applies in the ACC if Duke or Florida State hold serve all the way home. Both schools have four losses, and both schools lost to a team in the triple digits. But they also have enough quality wins where if they swept out the regular season and won the ACC Tournament, they could overcome your seeding based on higher-quality wins. And that’s because you’ve got a triple-digit loss yourselves now too, but only four Q1 wins, and none since January 4th.

So it looks like, for now, you’re relatively unscathed here SDSU. But there’s a chance this comes back to haunt you on Selection Sunday. Start rooting for chaos and upsets in the B1G and ACC... and don’t let this happen again.

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