We’re not going to lie, we found a couple games this evening we like more than some others. One is an AAC over/under, and one is a B1G roadie. We’d generally fire at least 3-4 games on a board like this, but we’re a bit gun shy having dropped four of our last five. Still 19-11 the last 2.5 weeks, so let’s see if we can get back closer to that magical and unsustainable 67% win threshold.
Memphis vs. SMU UNDER 143.5
You don’t see a lot of NCAA totals in the 140’s, and that’s because of the slower pace of the game. Even with the 30 second shot clock and 20 seconds on the reset nowadays, college offenses just aren’t as efficient. But tonight we’ve got a case of good on good, and bad on bad:
Adjusted offensive efficiency: Memphis 188th, SMU 15th
Adjusted defensive efficiency: Memphis 13th, SMU 239th
It’s enough to cancel each other out, and keep the winner from cracking 70. We’ll go under and pray for no overtime (which has been a killer for us this season). Also go see Precious Achiuwa before he goes to NBA: his glow-up as of late has been terrific to watch in a disappointing Memphis season
Iowa +8.5 at Michigan State
We stan Iowa around here for a few reasons. They play insanely hard. Luka Garza is our favorite player to watch in college basketball (and it looks like the media and Wooden Award voters are catching up to him). But they also grind the most out of every possession both offensively and defensively.
The same can be said of Michigan State all these years under Tom Izzo, and these teams look and play a lot alike. But MSU has covered exactly once in Feburary in six chances: and Iowa is just too tough to get blow out.
It’s why we’ll take the points even if CJ Fredrick isn’t a go this evening. If he is... then we really love Iowa to cover.
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