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Considering a best bet for the Miami Marlins 2020 win total

The Miami Marlins won the least amount of games in the National League in 2019. After some offseason moves, are they destined to top their win total in 2020?

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Caleb Smith throws in the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Marlins Park. Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The expectations for the Marlins aren’t exactly high after this team won only 57 games in 2019, which was the lowest win total in the National League and third overall in baseball. The Tigers and Orioles won fewer games at 47 and 54, respectively. However, to the Marlins credit, they did make a number of moves during the offseason to improve their team and they seemed destined to win more than 57 games in 2020. While they’re still a ways away from being competitive, they should be able to improve upon their 2019 season.

Additions

SP Sterling Sharp
RP Brandon Kintzler
RP Yimi García
C Francisco Cervelli
1B Jesús Aguilar
2B Jonathan Villar
OF Corey Dickerson
OF Matt Joyce

Subtractions

RP Wei-Yin Chen
2B Starlin Castro

Offseason news

The Marlins made some moves to improve their power after ranking dead last in home runs with only 146. They were one of two teams who averaged less than a home run a game with the Tigers being the other team (149). After that, each team hit at least 162. With that in mind, the Marlins were able to pick up Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar. Dickerson signed on a two-year deal, Aguilar and Villar were claimed off waivers from the Rays and Orioles. These are three impact bats the Marlins severely lacked last season and will help them be more competitive. These players combined for 48 home runs last season but both Dickerson and Aguilar missed the majority of the season due to injury.

The Marlins pitching staff will remain mostly the same. A couple of moves were made in their bullpen with the addition of Brandon Kintzler and Yimi Garcia. Depending on how they decide to handle the late innings, Kintzler could end up being the closer for this team — a role that Jose Urena was in the mix for at the end of the season. Garcia should provide a very solid bridge to Kintzler in a setup role. Garcia found success in that role with the Dodgers last season but still ended up being non-tendered, leading to his contract with the Marlins.

The Marlins also brought in veteran Francisco Cervelli, who will serve as the backup to Jorge Alfaro. With a very young pitching staff on board, Cervelli will be a veteran influence to spell Alfaro. Cervelli certainly doesn’t move the needle offensively and his health is a legitimate concern, as he continues to deal with concussions. He hasn’t played more than 130 games since 2015 and only logged 48 between the Pirates and Braves last season. Nonetheless, what he can provide on the bench is likely worth the risk for such a young team.

Best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Marlins current win total set at 64.5. Hitting the over gives them at least eight more wins than they had last season, which I think is obtainable. The additional power in their lineup should help them move over the hump to hit the over on their total as well as an additional year of service for their young staff. Of course, the potential that the Marlins could sell off some of their important assets is always a concern, especially with guys like Caleb Smith, who teams have been very interested in. Nonetheless, as this team stands during the offseason, this should be a club that is more competitive than last year but still not a serious threat to other teams.

Miami Marlins OVER 64.5 wins

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