clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Considering a best bet for the New York Mets 2020 win total

In what’s been a rather quiet offseason in terms of player moves, can the Mets remain competitive in what should be a tight NL East race?

New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob DeGrom prepares to pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Nothing comes easy when it involves the New York Mets and this offseason has been no different. Caught up in the sign-stealing scandal that’s been headed by the Houston Astros, the Mets parted ways with newly hired manager Carlos Beltran. Since then, they’ve replaced him with Luis Rojas, who has yet to manage a game at the major league level. Aside from being caught up in the scandal, the Mets have remained relatively quiet after losing Zach Wheeler to the Phillies.

Additions

SP Rick Porcello
RP Michael Wacha
OF Jake Marisnick

Subtractions

SP Zack Wheeler
RP Drew Gagnon
3B Todd Frazier

Offseason news

Seeing Wheeler depart was the biggest news for the Mets this offseason (player-wise). Going to the Phillies on a massive five-year $118 million contract left a hole in New York’s rotation. They patched up that need by adding a couple of veteran starters in Rick Porcello, who won the Cy Young with the Red Sox in 2016, and former Cardinals starter Michael Wacha. Being a groundball pitcher at Citi Field for half of his games should provide a good landing spot for Porcello while Wacha should hopefully see a drop in his home runs, after allowing a 1.8 HR/9 last year. These certainly aren’t the “sexy” signings Mets fans were hoping for but it provides some very solid depth in what should remain a strong rotation, to begin with. It should also ensure that Robert Gsellman remains in the bullpen as a reliever.

Reliever Dellin Betances will help what was a very shaky Mets bullpen last season. The closers and setup roles always felt like adventures to get through, especially when the Mets were holding a lead. It’s a one-year “prove it” deal for Betances, who only pitched 23 of an inning last year with the Yankees due to injury. If he’s able to return to form, he is one of the best relievers that was on the market and will help close the gap to closing games for the Mets. When he was healthy in 2018, Betances struck out 155 through 66 23 innings while allowing just 22 runs (20 earned).

Best bet

The Mets play in a tough division in the National League East. We can safely say that almost every team should be competitive and it could be a tight race. Even the Marlins made some moves this offseason to address their lack of power by adding three bats who all have the potential to hit 15+ home runs. The Mets pitching staff keeps them in the conversation, even with the loss of Wheeler. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman will keep this team in the mix all season long. With that in mind, I think the Mets will come slightly under their current win total, which DraftKings Sportsbook currently has set at 85.5. If this starts to drop, I think the over would be in play but this is very, very close to where I project them to land once it’s all said and done.

New York Mets UNDER 85.5 wins

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH). NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.