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Best lineup strategy for Chiefs vs. 49ers simulation Showdown

DraftKings is now offering NFL simulations so we’ve got football DFS back! We’ll break down Wednesday night’s Showdown between Kansas City and San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert runs past Green Bay Packers inside linebacker Blake Martinez in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFL DFS is back on DraftKings! With the sporting world suspended due to coronavirus outbreak, our usual respite from the real world has been taken from us. DraftKings is rescuing us with Simulated NFL contests. Here are the rules, so be sure to go over them before making a lineup. I’ll pull the part about how scoring works, since that’s most important:

All RB/WR/TE will receive points for their performance in a specific game from the 2019/20 season. Each individual player will be randomly assigned stats from a single game in the 2019-20 season prior to the contest going live. QBs will receive passing yards and passing TD stats based on their teammates’ receiving performances and the remainder of the QBs stats (rushing yards, rushing TDs, interceptions and fumbles) from a specific game in the 2019-20 season. Points will be revealed per player as the game moves along. Players will receive points in accordance with our single-game NFL Showdown Captain Mode rules and scoring.

Okay, so let’s try to break down this free Simulated Football Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

Captain’s Picks

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($19,500)

Looking back at the 2019 season, we want to find the most consistent and/or high upside players for the Captain’s slot. For quarterbacks, we want those with the best chance for rushing points, as their DK scores are calculated by their receivers random stat lines but the QB’s random rushing lines are thrown in for good measure. In this matchup, Patrick Mahomes has the best rushing stats and easily the best receiving lines from his receivers.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($8,400)

Mostert is a must play due to his price and his big stretch of strong games to end the 2019 season. Yes, he had plenty of down games early in the season that can scare you off, but he also had two games that won’t count, due to him scoring zero DK points and a four touchdown game in the playoffs. He managed 19 double-digit DK games through 17 total games, including a slate breaker that could hit like a lottery ticket.

FLEX Options

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($10,800)

Hill missed four games last season and scored zero DK points in another, so those won’t be games that can randomly pop up for the simulation. When you take those games out of the equation, only the first game of the season, when he was injured, and his playoff game against the Texans were true duds. He didn’t have as many smash games as 2018, but he was consistently in double-digit DK points and had five blow up games out of 14.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($7,400)

Samuel was a consistent fantasy scorer in 2019 due to his rushing stats helping him boost his floor. Of his 18 games played, he managed double-digit DK points in 10. There are four true duds in there, but for the most part, he managed to give fantasy players a good chance week in and week out.