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Best Packers-centric strategy for Packers vs. 49ers simulation Showdown

DraftKings is now offering NFL simulations so we’ve got football DFS back! We’ll break down Thursday night’s Showdown between Green Bay and San Francisco.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers hands off to Aaron Jones in the first half against the San Francisco 49ers during the NFC Championship game at Levi’s Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

NFL DFS is back on DraftKings! With the sporting world suspended due to coronavirus outbreak, our usual respite from the real world has been taken from us. DraftKings is rescuing us with Simulated NFL contests. Today they have the Green Bay Packers facing the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of the NFC Championship Game.

Here are the rules, so be sure to go over them before making a lineup. I’ll pull the part about how scoring works, since that’s most important:

All RB/WR/TE will receive points for their performance in a specific game from the 2019/20 season. Each individual player will be randomly assigned stats from a single game in the 2019-20 season prior to the contest going live. QBs will receive passing yards and passing TD stats based on their teammates’ receiving performances and the remainder of the QBs stats (rushing yards, rushing TDs, interceptions and fumbles) from a specific game in the 2019-20 season. Points will be revealed per player as the game moves along. Players will receive points in accordance with our single-game NFL Showdown Captain Mode rules and scoring.

We’ve offered a best overall lineup strategy for this free Simulated Football Showdown contest, but let’s consider a Packers-specific lineup for this rematch the NFC title game.

Captain’s Picks

Aaron Jones ($16,800)

The fact that he’s only the third highest priced player for the Packers offers some real value. He’s significantly more boom-or-bust than anybody else on this roster, but the highs are near record-setting. Jones scored a touchdown in 10 of the Packers 18 games this past season, with seven games of at least two touchdowns. He also had eight games of at least six receptions, which is a boost for DraftKings’ PPR style scoring.

Davante Adams ($17,400)

Normally a quarterback would be a strong Captain option, but given the nature of this contest, Adams is the better choice. A QB’s stats for this random assignment are based on how his receivers are doing. Rodgers had big numbers from Adams and Jones, but did not get a whole lot more in his passing game, so his upside is limited. Adams missed four games in 2020, but when he did play, he was strong. He scored in double digits 7 of his 12 regular season games, but then took it to an other gear in the playoffs. He surpassed 27 points in each of his two playoff appearances. There’s huge upside here.

FLEX Options

Aaron Rodgers ($12,000)

The quarterback is usually a strong captain option, but this contest is a little different. Rodgers’ passing yardage is based on the randomly selected performances of his pass catchers. There’s some upside there, but given the shaky group of pass catchers behind Adams and Jones, Rodgers is not as valuable as he might otherwise be.

Jamaal Williams ($5,000)

Even if you go with Aaron Jones on your roster, Williams offers a little bit of value. An injury slowed him early in the season, but he finished the regular season with four double digit performances. He was a decently consistent pass-catching option, and had a few good to great rushing performances.

Jimmy Graham ($4,400)

Graham is on the downside of his career, but he still put together a handful of solid performances this season, including 7.9 and 9.9 points in the Packers’ two playoff games. He only had two double digit games, so it’s modest boom and mostly bust.