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Best lineup strategy for Chiefs vs. Titans simulation Showdown

DraftKings is now offering NFL simulations so we’ve got football DFS back! We’ll break down Friday night’s Showdown between Kansas City and Tennessee.

Running back Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans runs up field against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 19, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri. Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

NFL DFS is back on DraftKings! With the sporting world suspended due to coronavirus outbreak, our usual respite from the real world has been taken from us. DraftKings is rescuing us with Simulated NFL contests. Here are the rules, so be sure to go over them before making a lineup. I’ll pull the part about how scoring works, since that’s most important:

All RB/WR/TE will receive points for their performance in a specific game from the 2019/20 season. Each individual player will be randomly assigned stats from a single game in the 2019-20 season prior to the contest going live. QBs will receive passing yards and passing TD stats based on their teammates’ receiving performances and the remainder of the QBs stats (rushing yards, rushing TDs, interceptions and fumbles) from a specific game in the 2019-20 season. Points will be revealed per player as the game moves along. Players will receive points in accordance with our single-game NFL Showdown Captain Mode rules and scoring.

Okay, so let’s try to break down this free Simulated Football Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans.

Captain’s Picks

Derrick Henry, Titans ($16,800)

Henry had a 2019 season that you couldn’t have scripted much better. In a league with little value for running backs who aren’t above average receivers, Henry mowed down the competition, accumulating 2,213 total yards and 20 touchdowns through 19 games. Those numbers give us a good idea of how consistent Henry was, as he only had three games you would consider poor. He doesn’t have Mahomes’ upside, but he is easily the most consistent player in this matchup.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($18,600)

Mahomes put up 51+ DK points in the simulation against the 49ers without any rushing stats. We probably can’t expect that high of a number for this game, but the random receiving games for his wide receivers, tight ends and running backs ended up giving him more DK points than he has ever gotten before in real life. With that kind of upside, I’m happy to give him another shot for this matchup.

FLEX Options

Ryan Tannehill, Titans ($15,600)

Tannehill was extremely consistent last season, putting up good fantasy stats in ten of his 14 games. Of course, the simulation gives Tannehill statistics that his receivers get, but they also pick a random game and use his rushing statistics as well. On the season, Tannehill had five rushing touchdowns in five separate games, which gives him a decent chance to add those stats to his total.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($9,000)

Hill missed four games last season and scored zero DK points in another, so those won’t be games that can randomly pop up for the simulation. When you take those games out of the equation, only the first game of the season, when he was injured, and his playoff game against the Texans were true duds. He didn’t have as many smash games as 2018, but he was consistently in double-digit DK points and had five blow up games out of 14.

A.J. Brown, Titans ($7,000)

Brown was inconsistent due to the Titans run-first mentality, but when he got his chances, he made them count. On the season he had eight receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown and two games with two receiving touchdowns. He had 10 down games and nine double-digit fantasy games. Five of those nine good results were 20+ DK points games, and at his price, that kind of upside is something I want a piece of in a tournament like this.

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($4,000)

Hardman didn’t get a lot of touches in 2019, but he was so explosive with the ball, that he did manage some decent fantasy games, topping double-digit DK points in eight games. His postseason run was awful, as the team went to its proven players, so overall, he had eight down games and three with zero or negative points. The good news is that the rules say, “Players will only be randomly assigned games in which they played and scored more than 0 FPTs.” That knocks out those three games and gives us a 50 percent chance to get a decent score from a super cheap option.