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Why DeAndre Hopkins will go over his receiving yardage total in 2020 — for now

The Cardinals traded for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, pairing him with Larry Fitzgerald. Can the stud receiver build on a strong 2019? We break down his 2020 over/under.

Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins celebrates after scoring a two point conversion during the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card NFL Playoff game at NRG Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Cardinals made a huge move this offseason, trading for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins without having to give up a first round pick. The Hopkins deal has not been made officially official as of this article publishing because Hopkins had not passed his physical. He was finally able to talk one amidst the pandemic and passed it, according to NFL Network reporter James Palmer.

Hopkins is coming off a solid 2019 that was a step back from his recent product. He caught 104 passes for 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns. That was a very good year, but a slight regression from his previous two years in which he averaged 1,475 yards and 12 touchdowns per season.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has given us over/under totals on passing, receiving and rushing yards for individual players. Hopkins’ over/under for receiving yards in 2020 is set at 1,180.5.

Prediction: Over 1,180.5

There is no denying Hopkins’ talent, but this is a tough number to bet on due to other issues. Hopkins joins a surging Cardinals roster that got an impressive rookie year from quarterback Kyler Murray. The No. 1 overall pick threw for 3,722 yards with 20 touchdowns and one interception. The team struggled as a whole, but they were a dangerous roster that could take a big step forward with Hopkins.

If Murray has a sophomore slump, the under on this number makes sense. But if you think Murray can build on his rookie season, Hopkins will get a ton of opportunities in this offense. Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and others will compete for looks, but Hopkins is far and away the best receiver. His 1,165 yards last season was the third lowest of his seven year career. He had 954 yards in 2016 and 802 in 2013, his rookie season. He might not see the same level of targets with Fitzgerald and a rising Christian Kirk out there, but he can still be plenty productive with what he gets.

The biggest concern right now is that Murray and Hopkins won’t get nearly enough time to get on the same page. If teams are able to cut back on social distancing with enough time leading up to training camp, I like the chances of this going over. If we see a delay that results in a truncated training camp and preseason, the under might be the safer bet.

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