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Why Nick Chubb should go under his rushing yards total in 2020

Nick Chubb is set to have another strong year. But we don’t think he’ll hit his over/under for total rushing yards on DraftKings Sportsbook in 2020.

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb runs with the ball during a football game against the Baltimore Ravens in the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium.  Mitchell Layton-USA TODAY Sports

Nick Chubb had a breakout year in 2019. The Cleveland Browns running back ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,494) in his sophomore season. He only trailed the Tennessee TitansDerrick Henry, despite his team adding Odell Beckham Jr. to the receiving corp over the offseason.

Will Chubb continue to be a very good back? We think so. However, it’s hard to see him producing at a similar level in 2020 because of his team’s dedication to improve in the passing game. DraftKings Sportsbook set Chubb’s over/under for total rushing yards at 1,350.5, and that might not be attainable for the third year back.

Prediction: Under 1,350.5

The Browns fortified their offensive line by adding Jack Conklin in free agency and appear poised to draft an offensive lineman with the 10th pick in the 2020 draft as well. That could benefit Chubb, but the main objective is to help Baker Mayfield get better. The third year quarterback threw 22 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions last year, but has help on the way.

Cleveland made Austin Hooper the highest paid tight end in the NFL this offseason. He’s a more dynamic pass catcher than David Njoku, who was a non factor in 2019 because of injury, and is also a significantly better pass blocker. Hooper, Jarvis Landry, and Beckham are a lethal group that will take some of the spotlight from Chubb. Mayfield’s four tight ends accounted for 497 receiving yards in 2019. Adding a Pro Bowl talent at that position who tallied 787 receiving yards last season will affect Chubb.

You also have to consider Kareem Hunt, who served an eight game suspension last year for committing domestic violence. He will not face suspension in 2020 and might be the best backup running back in the NFL. His versatility helps him impact games as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. Cleveland wouldn’t tender him if it didn’t intend to make could use of him.

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