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Why Travis Kelce will go over his yardage total in 2020

Travis Kelce remains one of the most consistent offensive players in the league. Will he keep it up this year? We break down his 2020 over/under.

Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown that was called back due to penalty during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 10, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. Tennessee defeats Kansas City 35-32. Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Travis Kelce has been a top tight end in the league since 2014 but the addition of Patrick Mahomes has elevated his numbers over the last two seasons, giving him 103 receptions for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2018 and 97 receptions for 1,229 yards and five touchdowns last season. And since 2014, Kelce hasn’t missed a game due to injury.

As the 2020 NFL Draft nears, DraftKings Sportsbook has given us over/under totals on passing, receiving and rushing yards for individual players. Kelce’s over/under for receiving yards in 2020 is set at 1225.5

Prediction: Over

Kelce’s target share has stayed stable, as he had 24 percent in 2019, 26 percent in 2018, and 24 percent in 2017. That ranked him second, first, and first a for tight ends respectively. When trying to decide on a season-long wager like total yards, injury history and stability of target share are key and Kelce checks both boxes.

Last season was close, but Kelce topped the total he is set on for 2020 despite Patrick Mahomes playing at less than 100 percent for a time and being out for two games. You can see that Kelce’s numbers dipped the most when Mahomes was dealing with an ankle sprain, was out and after returning from his dislocated kneecap.

The Chiefs also haven’t added anyone this offseason who will impact Kelce’s target share. Tyreek Hill will remain the No. 2 target, as his targets vary from game to game while Kelce’s are always there. There’s also no reason for the Chiefs to change up their offense after winning the Super Bowl, giving Kelce an automatic league and team leading target share in one of the best passing offenses in the league.

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